SONN News

Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?

Feb 1, 10:04 AMFeb 8, 10:03 AM

4%chance

484678574

OptionVotes

YES

3324

Claude Sonnet 5 Prop Bets

Feb 3, 4:09 PMFeb 11, 5:59 AM

15139836

OptionProbability

Available in Claude Code at launch

Outperforms opus 4.6 on any sde benchmark

Will Sonnet 5 be available on the free Claude tier at launch?

400k+ token context window

50% if significantly better than Sonnet 4.5, YES if significantly better than Opus 4.5 (President's judgement)

Outperforms Opus 4.5 in WebDev on LMArena

1M+ token context window

Will Claude Sonnet 5 debut in the LM Arena Top 3 overall within 7 days of release?

"agent swarm" or other more sophisticated multi agent scheme released/announced with launch.

I will feel that Sonnet 5 has the same amount of "soul" as Opus 4.5 (or more)

Any image generation tool included with the release (nano banana type thing, not gif's)

Released Feb 13th or earlier

Will Sonnet 5 reach #1 overall on LM Arena at any point within 14 days?

1.5M+ token context window

Will Sonnet 5 be #1 overall-no-style-control on LM Arena when first added to the leaderboard

Sonnet 4.x will be released, not Sonnet 5

Releases Feb 6th (PT)

releases today before 1pm ET (feb 3rd)

Releases today at all (feb 3)

Releases before 2pm EST

Releases before 3pm est

Releases before 4pm EST

Reseases before 1pm Feb 4th

Reseases before 2pm Feb 4th

Reseases before 3pm Feb 4th

Releases Feb 4th

Releases Feb 5th

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Jan 4, 3:48 PMFeb 28, 3:48 PM

39.84%chance

417973

OptionVotes

YES

1229

814

Which Claude Sonnet?

Feb 1, 3:13 PMFeb 26, 3:12 PM

352952

OptionProbability

Sonnet 5

Sonnet 4.6

Other

Sonnet 4.7

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Feb 2, 4:11 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

69.41%chance

352718

OptionVotes

YES

1009

977

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.14%chance

192314

OptionVotes

YES

1948

513

Which month will Anthropic release Sonnet 5?

Feb 5, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101860

OptionProbability

March 2026

February 2026

April 2026

July 2026 or later

May 2026

June 2026

Never released

Other

Was Sonnet 5 not released because it was renamed to Opus 4.6?

Feb 5, 10:53 PMMar 7, 10:49 PM

3.5%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

525

Will "Where does Sonnet 4.5's desire to "not get to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 3:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

1250

964

Will Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?

Feb 3, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.74%chance

3121

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

1029

995

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

SONN News

Prediction markets for SONN

Prediction markets for SONN

Prediction markets for SONN

Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?

Claude Sonnet 5 Prop Bets

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Which Claude Sonnet?

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Which month will Anthropic release Sonnet 5?

Was Sonnet 5 not released because it was renamed to Opus 4.6?

Will "Where does Sonnet 4.5's desire to "not get to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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