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Prediction markets for Sonnet

Which month will Anthropic release Sonnet 5?

Feb 5, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3914636

OptionProbability

June 2026

July 2026 or later

Never released

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

Other

61

31

3

1

1

1

1

1

Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 2, 1:04 PMAug 4, 12:00 AM

3810666

OptionProbability

Other

9h - 10h

3h - 4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

<3h

13h - 14h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

12h - 13h

82

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

394973

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Odyssey

Claude Ballad

Claude Epic

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Canon

Claude Requiem

Claude Chronicle

Claude Parable

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude Legend

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

31

24

23

18

18

18

16

16

16

15

14

12

11

10

9

4

2

1

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Jan 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.7%chance

84874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?

Jun 22, 9:36 PMJun 27, 11:59 PM

19.53%chance

211130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Was sonnet 5 meant to be released instead of Opus 4.6?

Feb 6, 6:19 PMJun 30, 5:15 PM

2.88%chance

191112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

581

17

Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

Feb 3, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

18917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Why is Claude 3.5 Sonnet such a good model for its size?

Jul 11, 8:22 AMJul 19, 6:59 AM

8547

OptionProbability

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

Task vectors like golden gate Claude

88

63

49

37

Will "Where does Sonnet 4.5's desire to "not get to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 3:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?

Feb 3, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.95%chance

6236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

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