SOON News

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.48%chance

22150870

OptionVotes

YES

2505

1157

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

325572

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

Will "An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 3, 11:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.43%chance

41240

OptionVotes

YES

2100

886

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Dec 19, 4:37 AMJul 5, 6:59 AM

21.7%chance

13968

OptionVotes

YES

1712

127

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Jun 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6825

OptionProbability

2025Q1

Other

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

2027Q1

2027Q2

Will we reach the longevity escape velocity soon enough to save my cats?

Nov 2, 12:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.28%chance

10823

OptionVotes

YES

500

124

Will Naughty Dog release The Last of Us Part III any time soon?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5592

OptionProbability

By 2026 or later

By 2025

Yes, by the end of Q2 2024

Yes, until the end of 2024

Will "games of no chance" have a Lorxus-supplied facecast soon?

Dec 4, 2:16 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

4.19%chance

5217

OptionVotes

YES

239

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will "Too Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 17, 7:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Bounty for the geoguess market (will delete soon )

Mar 15, 12:38 PM

How long does it usually take you to admit to yourself "yeah, I'm not actually going read this book any time soon." ?

Jun 26, 5:18 PM

210

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At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Will "An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Will we reach the longevity escape velocity soon enough to save my cats?

Will Naughty Dog release The Last of Us Part III any time soon?

Will "games of no chance" have a Lorxus-supplied facecast soon?

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will "Too Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Bounty for the geoguess market (will delete soon )

How long does it usually take you to admit to yourself *"yeah, I'm not actually going read this book any time soon."* ?

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How long does it usually take you to admit to yourself "yeah, I'm not actually going read this book any time soon." ?