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Top stories

WiseLink Leads US$10 Million Bitcoin Treasury Deal With Nasdaq-Listed Top Win

WiseLink Leads US$10 Million Bitcoin Treasury Deal With Nasdaq-Listed Top Win

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for SORA

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

53.33%chance

156620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10689

9355

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM

34.85%chance

246277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13672

7314

Will OpenAI lose over $1B in Sora-related lawsuits?

Oct 4, 10:53 AMOct 4, 10:50 AM

14.41%chance

173910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3007

916

Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?

Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM

40.2%chance

142701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

820

Will OpenAI be sued for Copyright violations related to Sora 2?

Oct 7, 10:17 PMDec 31, 10:20 PM

91.57%chance

62355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3295

304

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.92%chance

111924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

419

Will OpenAI create a game-playing AI that uses Sora?

Feb 18, 1:16 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

24.69%chance

33934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

758

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

8735

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

44

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.28%chance

12644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10048

9959

Will GPT5 integrate SORA?

Feb 17, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.53%chance

9587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

620

37

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Jan 2, 7:50 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

52.25%chance

6419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

956

How many tokens does Sora use to encode one second of high-resolution video (1920*1080)? (February version)

Apr 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

243

OptionProbability

1600-1800

1800-2000

2000-2200

2200-2400

2400-2600

9400-9600

9600-9800

9800-10000

3200-3400

3400-3600

3600-3800

3800-4000

4000-4200

4200-4400

4400-4600

4600-4800

4800-5000

5000-5200

5200-5400

5400-5600

5600-5800

5800-6000

6000-6200

6200-6400

6400-6600

6600-6800

0-200

200-400

400-600

600-800

800-1000

1000-1200

1200-1400

1400-1600

2600-2800

2800-3000

3000-3200

6800-7000

7000-7200

7200-7400

7400-7600

7600-7800

7800-8000

8000-8200

8200-8400

8400-8600

8600-8800

8800-9000

9000-9200

9200-9400

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2

2

2

2

1

1

1

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1

1

1

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1

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1

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1

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