OptionProbability
5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.
6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.
10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.
2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).
9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.
3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.
4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.
7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.
8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.
1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.
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