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Top stories

Palihapitiya Seeks $250 Million for ‘American Exceptionalism’ SPAC

Palihapitiya Seeks $250 Million for ‘American Exceptionalism’ SPAC

Authors

58

6 months ago

Prediction markets for SPAC

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.28%chance

170147567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3743

452

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.75%chance

85132278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2814

887

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.88%chance

14626206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3832

578

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?

May 2, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.64%chance

5017256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12598

8332

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.49%chance

2413086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13201

7571

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

Jan 9, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2912632

OptionProbability

>= 2032

2028

2029

2031

2030

2027

Before 2027

38

18

15

13

12

3

1

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.99%chance

483428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

891

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

302825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

909

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Apr 14, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52460

OptionProbability

Acquired by, or merged into, a (non-SPAC) public company

Going public (e.g. IPO, SPAC, Direct listing)

Other

Bankruptcy or going out of business

None of the other options happen by 2060

40

21

18

11

11

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.01%chance

202129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5675

3743

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?

Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

51.25%chance

331312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

906

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