SPAC News

Palihapitiya Seeks $250 Million for ‘American Exceptionalism’ SPAC

1 year ago

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6.5%chance

127235217

OptionVotes

YES

3804

910

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.29%chance

175158767

OptionVotes

YES

6538

297

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

YES

2739

903

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.34%chance

15227392

OptionVotes

YES

4875

370

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

Jan 9, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3723203

OptionProbability

>= 2032

2029

2028

2030

2031

2027

Before 2027

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

5723189

OptionVotes

YES

12515

3696

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.06%chance

2713596

OptionVotes

YES

12765

7830

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Apr 14, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54000

OptionProbability

Acquired by, or merged into, a (non-SPAC) public company

Going public (e.g. IPO, SPAC, Direct listing)

Other

Bankruptcy or going out of business

None of the other options happen by 2060

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.36%chance

483433

OptionVotes

YES

1007

880

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

1022

976

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

YES

6059

5939

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Mar 10, 8:36 PMMar 10, 8:36 PM

4288

OptionProbability

AMI goes public by Dec 31, 2030, through IPO, SPAC, RTO, or any other mechanism on any exchange

Headcount exceeds 150 employees by Dec 31, 2026

Announces revenue partnership beyond Nabla by Sep 30, 2026

Raises next funding round above $5B valuation by Mar 31, 2027

Releases open-source world model code by Dec 31, 2026

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Prediction markets for SPAC

Prediction markets for SPAC

Prediction markets for SPAC

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

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