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Top stories

Palihapitiya Seeks $250 Million for ‘American Exceptionalism’ SPAC

Palihapitiya Seeks $250 Million for ‘American Exceptionalism’ SPAC

Authors

58

4 months ago

Prediction markets for SPAC

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.75%chance

169146317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2970

528

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.82%chance

85131473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2810

881

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

3.24%chance

4494386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54636

1830

Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.11%chance

2833347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30120

33

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.74%chance

14526181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3924

553

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.06%chance

2312061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12241

8166

Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?

Jun 21, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.74%chance

246689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

9

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

142880

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

64

52

40

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

302825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

909

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Apr 14, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41360

OptionProbability

Acquired by, or merged into, a (non-SPAC) public company

Going public (e.g. IPO, SPAC, Direct listing)

Other

Bankruptcy or going out of business

None of the other options happen by 2060

39

20

17

14

10

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?

Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

51.25%chance

331312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

906

When will the first reputable AI-lab go public via a SPAC?

Feb 29, 3:36 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

675

OptionProbability

No AI-lab goes public via a SPAC in '24 or '25

H1'2024

H2'2024

H1'2025

H2'2025

44

14

14

14

14

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