Space and Time News

Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?

Nov 15, 6:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.56%chance

769140

OptionVotes

YES

2621

572

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

28.82%chance

401420

OptionVotes

YES

1305

797

Who will appear in Sonic the Hedgehog 4 (2027 Film)?

Jun 22, 4:16 PMMar 13, 4:59 AM

91258

OptionProbability

Amy Rose

Metal Sonic

Sonic the Hedgehog - voiced by Ben Schwartz

Knuckles the Echidna

Miles “Tails” Prower

Tom “Donut Lord” Wachowski

Maddie “Pretzel Lady” Wachowski

Agent Stone

Dr. Robotnik - Jim Carrey portrays some Eggman / clone / impersonator

Ozzy the Golden Retriever

Dr. Robotnik - confirmed to be Eggman and not a clone / impersonator

Iblis

Sonic the Hedgehog - Super Form

Wade Whipple

Big the Cat

Gerald Robotnik

Rouge the Bat

Cream the Rabbit

Metal Sonic - specifically Neo Metal or Metal Overlord Form

Silver the Hedgehog

Longclaw the Owl

Jack Sinclair

Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be the original Shadow

‘Ugly Sonic’ - a character whose appearance clearly alludes to the pre-backlash 2020 design

Blaze the Cat

Chaos

Chief Pachacamac

Tikal the Echidna

Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be a clone or impersonator

Sonic the Hedgehog - two Sonics (not impersonators) interact with each other as a result of time / space shenanigans

Vector the Crocodile

Espio the Chameleon

Charmy Bee

Eggman Nega

Mephiles the Dark

Zavok ❤️

Infinite the Jackal

Mighty the Armadillo

Sonic the Hedgehog - Werehog Form

Princess Elise

Kidnapping in space any time through 2030

Sep 19, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.69%chance

131168

OptionVotes

YES

2067

903

Police force in space any time through 2033

Sep 19, 5:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.85%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

1282

944

Returned space traveler arrested upon landing in the US any time through 2031

Sep 19, 12:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.02%chance

8292

OptionVotes

YES

321

129

Where and when does the Fine Structure Constant (α) vary?

Jan 20, 8:44 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM

9270

OptionProbability

It has or may continue to vary over time at times after the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang

It varied over time during the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang

At the current time it varies across space

By the end of 2029, will anyone surpass Valeri Polyakov's record for longest time continuously spent in space? (437 days.)

Dec 15, 6:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.09%chance

9265

OptionVotes

YES

273

170

Collision between two occupied ships in space leading to injuries any time through 2035

Sep 19, 5:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.9%chance

7230

OptionVotes

YES

282

135

Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity

Aug 6, 3:24 AMJan 1, 3:44 AM

7194

OptionProbability

String Theory/M-Theory (replacing point particles with extended objects in higher dimensions)

Other

No opinion

Gravity is not quantum

Hořava–Lifshitz Gravity (breaking speed of light limit at high energies)

Causal Sets (Discrete spacetime atoms, only connected by causal relations)

Causal Dynamical Triangulations (gluing triangulated space in layers of time)

Loop Quantum Gravity (quantizing areas and volumes in spacetime)

Asymptotic Safety (spacetime becomes a fractal on small scales)

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

Will Jonathan Oppenheim @postquantum win his bet with with @carlorovelli and @quantum_geoff about whether space-time is best described by quantum theory?

Jan 23, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.32%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

131

Space and Time News

Prediction markets for Space and Time

Prediction markets for Space and Time

Prediction markets for Space and Time

Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Who will appear in Sonic the Hedgehog 4 (2027 Film)?

Kidnapping in space any time through 2030

Police force in space any time through 2033

Returned space traveler arrested upon landing in the US any time through 2031

Where and when does the Fine Structure Constant (α) vary?

By the end of 2029, will anyone surpass Valeri Polyakov's record for longest time continuously spent in space? (437 days.)

Collision between two occupied ships in space leading to injuries any time through 2035

Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Will Jonathan Oppenheim @postquantum win his bet with with @carlorovelli and @quantum_geoff about whether space-time is best described by quantum theory?

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