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Top stories

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

Authors

73

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Space Force

First to land humans on the moon again?

Jan 31, 2:00 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

596957

OptionProbability

China

Spacex

NASA

Blue Origin

Other

US Space Force

Japan

Russia

48

30

18

3

2

0

0

0

Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?

Dec 16, 4:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91381

OptionProbability

Luna (Earth's Moon)

Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)

Other

Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)

Ocean platform (any site)

Mars

64

12

6

5

4

3

3

2

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?

Oct 19, 2:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

6636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

652

37

US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?

Mar 9, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.15%chance

13606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

554

18

Police force in space any time through 2033

Sep 19, 5:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.85%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

944

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

16293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Oct 19, 2:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.53%chance

7232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

28

Will AI produce a proof of finite-time blow-up for the unforced Navier–Stokes equations before 2027?

Sep 9, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.26%chance

9224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

94

Will a United States Cyber Force or Cyber Corp stand up before February 1, 2029?

Feb 2, 2:17 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.66%chance

8195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

163

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will Space Force get its own service academy by 2030?

Sep 1, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.45%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Oct 19, 2:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

57%chance

431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58

43

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