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Top stories

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

Authors

73

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Space Force

First to land humans on the moon again?

Jan 31, 2:00 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

586074

OptionProbability

Spacex

China

NASA

Blue Origin

Other

US Space Force

Japan

Russia

38

33

19

6

2

0

0

0

Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?

Dec 16, 4:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81324

OptionProbability

Luna (Earth's Moon)

Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)

Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)

Ocean platform (any site)

Other

Mars

61

14

7

6

3

3

3

2

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?

Oct 19, 2:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

6636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

652

37

Police force in space any time through 2033

Sep 19, 5:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.85%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

944

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.19%chance

14267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Oct 19, 2:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.6%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will the UK ban full-face coverings (incl. niqab/burqa) in public spaces by EOY2030?

Jul 23, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Space Force get its own service academy by 2030?

Sep 1, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.45%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Oct 19, 2:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.73%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

65

39

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