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Top stories

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

Authors

73

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Space Force

First to land humans on the moon again?

Jan 31, 2:00 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

555384

OptionProbability

Spacex

NASA

China

Blue Origin

Other

US Space Force

Japan

Russia

40

24

23

10

2

0

0

0

In what decade will we have space elevators

Mar 10, 3:38 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

283369

OptionProbability

Later or never

2050's

2040's

2030's

59

15

14

11

Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?

Dec 16, 4:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71274

OptionProbability

Luna (Earth's Moon)

Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)

Other

Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)

Ocean platform (any site)

Mars

56

17

8

7

4

3

3

2

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?

Oct 19, 2:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

6636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

652

37

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2025?

Apr 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

7569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

721

101

Police force in space any time through 2033

Sep 19, 5:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.85%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

944

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Oct 19, 2:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.6%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10.3%chance

7217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

58

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.41%chance

12193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

48

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Space Force get its own service academy by 2030?

Sep 1, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.45%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Oct 19, 2:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.73%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

65

39

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