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Prediction markets for Space Nation

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

116

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

518946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

789

Which space agencies or private companies will successfully land humans on Mars by 2030?🚀

Jan 7, 9:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

264291

OptionProbability

SpaceX

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration)

CNSA (China National Space Administration)

ESA (European Space Agency)

Blue Origin

Boeing

7

5

3

2

2

1

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

381311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

873

Which agency/company will send people back to the moon first?

Apr 6, 1:26 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

141050

OptionProbability

NASA

China National Space Administration

SPACEX

Other

European Space Agency

Google

56

46

10

7

6

5

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

39.88%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 16, 2:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.98%chance

13491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

844

Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?

May 11, 5:01 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

6173

OptionProbability

SpaceX

NASA

China National Space Administration

Other

79

13

4

4

Will there be a Space National Guard established in the USA by the start of 2028?

Aug 26, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.25%chance

660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will the Damage by Space Objects "treaty" get upgraded or replaced at least partly by some nations before 2032?

Jan 30, 9:46 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

48.73%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

505

495

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