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Prediction markets for Space Operator

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74%chance

18254031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1996

1193

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

9510712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

1191

Will a reactionless drive be conclusively demonstrated operational in space before 2100?

Sep 9, 7:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.05%chance

225348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

587

By December 31, 2028, will there be a fully operational, commercially available hotel in space?

Sep 26, 11:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.27%chance

18819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

876

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?

Oct 19, 2:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

6636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

652

37

Will Majorie Taylor Greene get nominated for Chief of Space Operations during Trump’s second term?

Nov 14, 2:21 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

4.66%chance

14463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

452

22

Will a nuclear torchship be operated in space before 2100?

Nov 23, 10:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.29%chance

9368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?

Jun 18, 2:13 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

8357

OptionProbability

2036 or later / Never

2031–2032

2033–2035

2030

2028

2029

By end of 2027

33

19

16

11

8

8

5

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Oct 19, 2:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.6%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

28

Will the James Webb Space Telescope still be operational at the beginning of 2038?

Jan 30, 10:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.93%chance

9148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

124

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Oct 19, 2:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

57%chance

431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58

43

When will Queenslink be operational?

Nov 6, 5:00 AMJan 2, 4:46 AM

00

OptionProbability

2028-2031

2032-2035

2036-2039

2039-2042

Later than 2042 or never

20

20

20

20

20

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