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Prediction markets for Space Technologies

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?

Sep 15, 12:29 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

18.29%chance

477378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3654

1310

Will NASA confirm the discovery of alien before 2026?

Feb 15, 5:19 PMDec 26, 4:58 AM

6.41%chance

96771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3972

128

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.99%chance

93816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Sep 29, 1:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.45%chance

422271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

922

Will Elon Musk visit Russia in 2025?

Feb 23, 6:30 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

21.59%chance

252086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2663

931

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76%chance

23912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

940

Will Exodus Propulsion Technologies propellantless propulsion work in space?

Apr 28, 8:23 AMMay 28, 10:59 PM

34%chance

4867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

99

In the year 2100, will construction have begun on a lunar space elevator?

Aug 6, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.88%chance

23451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

944

Major space agency funds research into Dyson Swarm technology by 2030?

Apr 8, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

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