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Prediction markets for SpaceX Starlink

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

81.7%chance

7120343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1608

792

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70%chance

274232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

722

SpaceX / Starlink surpass $50 billion revenue by 2030

Jan 21, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.45%chance

342176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1769

653

Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?

Nov 6, 5:24 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

211978

OptionProbability

No

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

63

27

10

Will Starlink launch their own phone before 2028?

Oct 17, 11:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

18.96%chance

101072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2067

484

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.21%chance

18617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

937

Which Elon Musk company will IPO next?

Mar 27, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17467

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Starlink (independent of SpaceX)

Other

Neuralink

X.com (Twitter)

X.ai

Boring Company

66

13

10

5

3

3

1

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

8339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

869

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2027?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.15%chance

8324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.97%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035

Jan 21, 2:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45%chance

8164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

198

Will starlink spin off from spacex and no longer be a subsidiary by the end of 2028?

Jul 1, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.71%chance

374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

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