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Prediction markets for SpaceX Starlink

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

80.27%chance

7322223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1510

816

Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?

Nov 6, 5:24 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

285020

OptionProbability

No

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

70

29

2

SpaceX / Starlink surpass $50 billion revenue by 2030

Jan 21, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.17%chance

352226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1819

641

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.8%chance

132088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

890

Will Starlink launch their own phone before 2028?

Oct 17, 11:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

18.24%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

472

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.74%chance

211108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

596

17

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.63%chance

19627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

947

Which Elon Musk company will IPO next?

Mar 27, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17567

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Starlink (independent of SpaceX)

Other

Neuralink

X.ai

X.com (Twitter)

Boring Company

67

13

10

4

3

2

1

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2027?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

15433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

41

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.58%chance

8389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

841

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035

Jan 21, 2:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.71%chance

13373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

131

Will starlink spin off from spacex and no longer be a subsidiary by the end of 2028?

Jul 1, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.71%chance

374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

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