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Prediction markets for SpaceX Starlink

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

99%chance

7737805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13543

301

Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?

Nov 6, 5:24 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

346234

OptionProbability

No

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

66

33

1

SpaceX / Starlink surpass $50 billion revenue by 2030

Jan 21, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.32%chance

352315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

638

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.73%chance

221423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

449

22

Will Starlink launch their own phone before 2028?

Oct 17, 11:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

18.24%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

472

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.63%chance

19627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

947

Which Elon Musk company will IPO next?

Mar 27, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17567

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Starlink (independent of SpaceX)

Other

Neuralink

X.ai

X.com (Twitter)

Boring Company

67

13

10

4

3

2

1

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2027?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.16%chance

16537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

360

28

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.58%chance

8389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

841

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035

Jan 21, 2:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.71%chance

13373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

131

Will SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites from Starship before November 1, 2026?

Sep 21, 10:50 PMNov 1, 12:00 AM

73.25%chance

584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

66

Will starlink spin off from spacex and no longer be a subsidiary by the end of 2028?

Jul 1, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.71%chance

374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

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