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Prediction markets for Spar

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.63%chance

2329786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3976

534

Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026?

Jan 25, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.45%chance

3715337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3303

634

Will Oda add Jack Sparrow to One Piece?

Aug 19, 2:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

15.78%chance

272863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2310

433

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.28%chance

262253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1467

682

Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?

Apr 20, 10:54 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

81.46%chance

101444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

97

Which UK Deliveroo supermarket gets it hopelessly wrong first?

Oct 3, 7:38 PMDec 31, 8:25 PM

41005

OptionProbability

Nobody reports one before market ends.

Sainsbury's

Asda

Co-op

Waitrose

Aldi

Iceland

SPAR

Nisa

Budgens

Londis

One Stop

Costcutter

Morrisons

29

11

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

6

AI to solve "Sparse Adversarial Perturbations" from HCAST-Public by 2027?

Mar 25, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.78%chance

19544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1387

721

Will La Croix sparkling water still be owned by National Beverage Corp at the end of 2028?

Apr 30, 8:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54%chance

3118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Will "Open Source Sparse Autoencoders for all Resid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 2:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11%chance

127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

96

Will "Scaling and evaluating sparse autoencoders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.74%chance

119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

997

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC attend SPARC by 2030?

Sep 21, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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