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Prediction markets for Spar

Will Oda add Jack Sparrow to One Piece?

Aug 19, 2:47 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

37.04%chance

374690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

767

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.74%chance

353788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

787

Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date

Sep 9, 5:40 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

122799

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-11-16

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-10-21

Before 2026-10-11

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-21

82

81

81

44

42

19

1

AI to solve "Sparse Adversarial Perturbations" from HCAST-Public by 2027?

Mar 25, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.71%chance

20594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

626

100

Will "Weight-Sparse Circuits May Be Interpretable Y..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 10, 9:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms?

Sep 13, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.33%chance

16453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

40

When will Meta release Muse Spark’s weights?

Sep 14, 11:29 AMFeb 6, 10:59 PM

5255

OptionProbability

Before Jun 2027

Before May 2027

Before Mar 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

95

90

80

59

40

Will La Croix sparkling water still be owned by National Beverage Corp at the end of 2028?

Apr 30, 8:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54%chance

3118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

100

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC attend SPARC by 2030?

Sep 21, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

What is the best sparkling water brand?

Aug 13, 10:19 PM

180

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