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Prediction markets for Spar

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.59%chance

2128996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3186

589

Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026?

Jan 25, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.91%chance

3614587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2553

695

Will Oda add Jack Sparrow to One Piece?

Aug 19, 2:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

14.66%chance

272261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2412

415

Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?

Apr 20, 10:54 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

81.46%chance

101444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

97

AI to solve "Sparse Adversarial Perturbations" from HCAST-Public by 2027?

Mar 25, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.96%chance

18519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1362

734

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

100

Will La Croix sparkling water still be owned by National Beverage Corp at the end of 2028?

Apr 30, 8:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.61%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will "Open Source Sparse Autoencoders for all Resid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 2:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11%chance

127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

96

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will "Scaling and evaluating sparse autoencoders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC attend SPARC by 2030?

Sep 21, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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