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Spar News
Prediction markets for Spar
Prediction markets for Spar
Will Oda add Jack Sparrow to One Piece?
Aug 19, 2:47 PM
Jan 2, 12:59 AM
56.45%
chance
29
3663
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1139
878
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Oct 9, 11:07 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
64.45%
chance
28
2673
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1346
743
Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?
Apr 20, 10:54 PM
Apr 28, 6:59 AM
81.46%
chance
10
1444
Option
Votes
NO
YES
350
97
AI to solve "Sparse Adversarial Perturbations" from HCAST-Public by 2027?
Mar 25, 2:56 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
62.71%
chance
20
594
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1297
771
Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?
Jan 26, 7:39 PM
Feb 1, 4:59 AM
91.83%
chance
11
291
Option
Votes
NO
YES
335
30
Will La Croix sparkling water still be owned by National Beverage Corp at the end of 2028?
Apr 30, 8:32 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
54%
chance
3
118
Option
Votes
NO
YES
108
92
Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?
Apr 23, 8:00 AM
Jun 30, 11:59 PM
25.94%
chance
5
56
Option
Votes
YES
NO
186
100
Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?
Jan 2, 9:15 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
50%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC attend SPARC by 2030?
Sep 21, 8:42 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
What is the best sparkling water brand?
Aug 13, 10:19 PM
17
0
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