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Prediction markets for Speak

Gemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)

Nov 6, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7069448

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-12-15

Before 2025-11-21

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-11-14

Before 2025-11-10

83

79

75

74

0

0

US public opinion, 2026: Should racists be allowed to speak?

Jun 16, 11:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

243729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1796

881

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

Will Adrian Dittman ever show his face while speaking without the video or the audio stream being synthetic?

Dec 31, 8:16 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

32.43%chance

10541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will "A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

52.94%chance

5389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

190

Will speaking English become a legal requirement for permanent residency in the UK before 2027?

Jul 21, 9:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.71%chance

8324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Will Ivano-Frankivsk be a "100% Ukrainian-speaking city" by the end of 2027?

Aug 31, 4:05 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

23.69%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers excluding w&m prof speak at int'l conf (not APL) by end 2030?

Feb 22, 2:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.78%chance

560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

63

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations speak German?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.47%chance

521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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