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Prediction markets for Speak

Gemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)

Nov 6, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7169490

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-12-15

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-11-21

Before 2025-11-14

Before 2025-11-10

83

80

77

75

0

0

US public opinion, 2026: Should racists be allowed to speak?

Jun 16, 11:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

253779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

973

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.68%chance

221041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1896

872

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

Will Adrian Dittman ever show his face while speaking without the video or the audio stream being synthetic?

Dec 31, 8:16 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

32.43%chance

10541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will "A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

52.94%chance

5389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

190

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Nov 4, 1:59 PMSep 10, 12:18 PM

24.66%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

During Trump's second term, will Matt Gaetz speak out in favor of lowering the age of consent?

Nov 13, 10:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18%chance

9199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will Grogu (Baby Yoda) speak?

May 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

10112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will Apu have a speaking appearance in the Simpsons again by the end of 2026?

Sep 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

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