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Prediction markets for Speak

Will Mitch McConnell speak this year?

Jul 7, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.44%chance

599503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

US public opinion, 2026: Should racists be allowed to speak?

Jun 16, 11:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

253779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

973

Who will speak at the 2028 DNC?

Mar 3, 6:17 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

192258

OptionProbability

Barack Obama

Zohran Mamdani

Michelle Obama

Bill clinton

James Talarico

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Ezra Klein

Adam mockler

Joe Biden

Jennifer Welch

Jasmine Crockett

Hasan Piker (Hasanabi)

Graham Platner

81

75

56

50

48

40

31

30

25

21

20

16

14

2

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.68%chance

221041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1896

872

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

Will "A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

52.94%chance

5389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

190

Will the OpenAI hardware device be a portable puck that sees, speaks, and moves?

Aug 6, 9:56 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

10234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

Will Ivano-Frankivsk be a "100% Ukrainian-speaking city" by the end of 2027?

Aug 31, 4:05 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

23.69%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Grogu (Baby Yoda) speak?

May 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

10112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers excluding w&m prof speak at int'l conf (not APL) by end 2030?

Feb 22, 2:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.78%chance

560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

63

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