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Prediction markets for SPEC

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2867

552

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3594

1876

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

79111

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

63

16

16

5

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29%chance

716082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1090

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74937

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

47

20

11

8

7

7

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

58.63%chance

194930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.89%chance

8340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

752

Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?

Aug 18, 10:56 PMAug 18, 10:56 PM

51.44%chance

392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

1022

How many Specs AI Glasses will SNAP sell in 2026 including pre-orders?

Dec 31, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

100,000 - 999,999

0 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

1,000,000 or more

65

12

12

12

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