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Prediction markets for SPEC

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

1024612

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2027

2026

2025

83

9

5

3

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1119711

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

91

2

2

2

2

2

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

15211730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7799

3854

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

748854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2589

1201

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

732

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

57.56%chance

225089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

859

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.11%chance

82353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2072

483

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

Will a US House seat flip from Democrat to Republican in a 2027 special election?

Oct 21, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.75%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

1966

How many Specs AI Glasses will SNAP sell in 2026 including pre-orders?

Dec 31, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

100,000 - 999,999

0 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

1,000,000 or more

65

12

12

12

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