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Prediction markets for SPEC

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

921255

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2027

2026

2025

76

14

6

3

Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?

Jul 23, 1:46 AMNov 23, 4:59 AM

61%chance

5119350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

800

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9016469

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

2035+

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

20

18

13

12

12

8

6

4

4

3

0

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1112369

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

80

9

3

3

3

3

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6410

4263

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

88%chance

427834

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2708

369

Democrats win the 2026 Special Election for Senate in Florida?

Aug 19, 12:16 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

11%chance

117581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4868

625

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

732

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

60.61%chance

204980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

806

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.11%chance

82353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2072

483

How many Specs AI Glasses will SNAP sell in 2026 including pre-orders?

Dec 31, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

100,000 - 999,999

0 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

1,000,000 or more

65

12

12

12

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