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Prediction markets for SPEC

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

2.74%chance

4263920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

73275

3001

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.61%chance

11225232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1668

729

Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?

Jul 23, 1:46 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM

40%chance

2810079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

1418719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3323

1983

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29%chance

716082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1090

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

55011

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

60

16

15

9

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

58.63%chance

194930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25%chance

312946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3295

2155

Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?

May 14, 8:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

2671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.79%chance

6255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

Who will win Gielinor Games Season 5?

Nov 29, 5:26 AMJan 24, 5:07 AM

195

OptionProbability

Boaty

Solomission

Gnomonkey

C Engineer

Coxie

Dino

Eliop14

Itswill

Josh

Maybejessi

Mika

Mr Mammal

Odablock

Potatohime

Prison Joe

Sick Nerd

Skill Specs

Torvesta

Virtoso

14

10

7

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

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