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Prediction markets for Special

Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?

Jul 23, 1:46 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM

30.66%chance

239402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?

Nov 7, 3:28 AMNov 4, 5:59 AM

277820

OptionProbability

Republican

Democratic

Other

73

27

1

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

55011

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

60

16

15

9

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

63.34%chance

291498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

922

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

74.82%chance

5724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1724

580

Who will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?

Nov 15, 10:28 PMNov 5, 5:59 AM

7617

OptionProbability

Jon Husted

Other

Tim Ryan

Sherrod Brown

Mike DeWine

Matt Dolan

Jame Timken

Jason Stephens

Josh Mandel

Frank LaRose

Matt Huffman

50

12

9

7

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

Will Rust support specialization on stable by end of 2026?

Dec 20, 7:37 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.99%chance

9189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

Will there be a special guest at the Super Bowl halftime show? 🏈 Super Bowl LX

Feb 10, 9:03 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

82.88%chance

2120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?

Dec 4, 10:41 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

24.6%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will the UK declare a special economic zone before 2035?

May 11, 1:55 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

57.5%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will Chris Turner get a Netflix special before 2026?

Apr 3, 3:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.04%chance

14

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

116

Will ""The Solomonoff Prior is Malign" is a special..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 5:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

89

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