Special Court News

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Sep 4, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1814156

OptionProbability

Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Before a verdict of guilt for any of these charges: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Trial begins before 2031

Trump serves “house arrest” for any of the 4 alleged violations

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Conspiracy Against Rights”

Convicted of all 4 alleged violations

Trump goes to prison for any of the 4 alleged violations

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

YES

996

983

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

61884

OptionProbability

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

Sakha (Yakutia)

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91516

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Mar 14, 3:00 AMJul 1, 11:59 AM

15.54%chance

231233

OptionVotes

YES

233

Tyler Robinson found dead in custody before January 1, 2026

Oct 17, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.38%chance

5367

OptionVotes

YES

467

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

YES

1031

945

Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025?

Apr 16, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.82%chance

10311

OptionVotes

YES

343

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

221

183

Will the Lille court grant me the €100 I am seeking in compensation from Flixbus?

Sep 30, 7:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.69%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

124

Special Court News

Prediction markets for Special Court

Prediction markets for Special Court

Prediction markets for Special Court

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Tyler Robinson found dead in custody before January 1, 2026

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025?

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Will the Lille court grant me the €100 I am seeking in compensation from Flixbus?

Latest stories