Special Court News

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Sep 4, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1814156

OptionProbability

Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Before a verdict of guilt for any of these charges: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Trial begins before 2031

Trump serves “house arrest” for any of the 4 alleged violations

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Conspiracy Against Rights”

Convicted of all 4 alleged violations

Trump goes to prison for any of the 4 alleged violations

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113329

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Mar 14, 3:00 AMJul 1, 11:59 AM

13.5%chance

241253

OptionVotes

YES

253

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

YES

1031

945

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

221

183

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.19%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

823

Special Court News

Prediction markets for Special Court

Prediction markets for Special Court

Prediction markets for Special Court

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

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