Special Court News

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Sep 4, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1814156

OptionProbability

Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Before a verdict of guilt for any of these charges: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Trial begins before 2031

Trump serves “house arrest” for any of the 4 alleged violations

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Conspiracy Against Rights”

Convicted of all 4 alleged violations

Trump goes to prison for any of the 4 alleged violations

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

YES

1117

894

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

123916

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

365+ days

180+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

1182

959

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

1500

841

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

YES

1031

945

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

17%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

221

Will Maduro comeback to Venezuela?

Sep 12, 6:34 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3.54%chance

4212

OptionVotes

YES

271

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

221

183

Will Gannon Ken Van Dyke be convicted?

Apr 24, 2:11 PMOct 24, 1:59 PM

83.23%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

119

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Mar 16, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2027

Will Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics become a reality before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.01%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

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Prediction markets for Special Court

Prediction markets for Special Court

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Will Maduro comeback to Venezuela?

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Will Gannon Ken Van Dyke be convicted?

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Will Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics become a reality before 2100?

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