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Prediction markets for Special Court

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will California Proposition 41 (tax limits and special-tax audits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Oct 6, 6:35 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

2%chance

1811289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8100

248

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.54%chance

174278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4638

681

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133926

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

100

57

55

46

22

0

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

17%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

Will a US House seat flip from Democrat to Republican in a 2027 special election?

Oct 21, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.75%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

1966

Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?

Oct 21, 5:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

914

Will there be Nuremberg 2.0 over AI technology before 2040?

Nov 4, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

9.86%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

Will Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics become a reality before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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