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Max Tegmark
Vitalik Buterin
Emmett Shear
Bruce Schneier
George Church
Scott Aaronson
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ben Bernanke
Stephen Fry
Tim Urban
Grimes
Scott Alexander
A former Fed Chair
Neel Nanda
A professor of a Chinese university
Stuart Russell
Yoshua Bengio
Geoffrey Hinton
Carl Feynman
Yuval Noah Harari
Toby Ord
Nick Bostrom
Geoffrey Irving
Billy Perrigo
Gwern
Dwarkesh Patel
Kevin Roose
Ezra Klein
Manifold
Helen Toner
Patrick McKenzie
Publishers Weekly
Vox
Christine Peterson
Booklist
Keach Hagey
Bill Gates
Evan Hubinger
Joe Rogan
Kurzgesagt
San Francisco Chronicle
NPR
Politico
Lex Fridman
The Economist
David Chalmers
Peter Singer
A former US Secretary of Treasury
BBC
Time
Any five current members of the UK Parliament
A former US Secretary of Energy
A former US Secretary of Commerce
Tucker Carlson
WIRED
Eric Schmidt
Matthew Yglesias
Gillian Hadfield
Karen Hao
A review in The Atlantic
Telegraph
The New York Times Book Review
Peter Norvig
At least five Nobel laureates
Rolling Stone
The New Yorker
A former US Secretary of State
A Science editorial
The Guardian
Ray Kurzweil
John Schulman
A current pope
Financial Times
Bloomberg Businessweek
Forbes
A New Scientist editorial
A current US Secretary of Treasury
John Oliver
IEEE Spectrum
Vanity Fair
roon
Elon Musk
Mustafa Suleyman
Judea Pearl
António Guterres
Foreign Affairs
Barack Obama
A Scientific American editorial
A Nature editorial
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Any five current United States representatives
The Wall Street Journal
Anthropic
Shane Legg
Ilya Sutskever
A current UK prime minister
JD Vance
Alexandr Wang
Daron Acemoglu
A high-ranking Chinese government official
Reuters
RFK Jr
Ivanka Trump
Narendra Modi
Benjamin Netanyahu
Terence Tao
CNN
Mr. Beast
Peter Thiel
Jimmy Fallon
Mira Murati
Richard Sutton
A current Fed Chair
Ursula von der Leyen
OpenAI
DeepMind
Demis Hassabis
Daniela Amodei
Jensen Huang
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Joe Biden
Dario Amodei
Any five current United States senators
Jeff Bezos
Satya Nadella
Greg Egan
A current US Secretary of Energy
Bill Clinton
JK Rowling
Fox News
Chris Olah
A current US Secretary of Commerce
A current US Secretary of State
Noam Chomsky
Donald J. Trump
Vladimir Putin
Tim Cook
Kamala Harris
King Charles
Xi Jinping
Taylor Swift
Sam Altman
Yann LeCun
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OptionProbability
New Glenn
H3
Long March 5
Zhuque 2
LVM3
Falcon Heavy
Nuri
Tianlong 3
Proton M
Zhuque 3
Pallas 1
Starship
Chollima 1
Vikram 1
Ceres-2
RFA One
Kairos
Ariane 64
Qased
Kinetica-2
Long March 12A
Rocket Lab Neutron
Nebula-1
Orbex Prime
ABL RS1
Hyperbola-3
Astra Rocket 4
Stoke Space Nova
Isar Spectrum
Gilmour Space Eris
Long March 10
Skyrora XL
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If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.
People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align AI.
We can measure the variance in confidence between any two intelligent agent's finite list of various propositions they've evaluated.
Analytic philosophers have had a mechanistically interpretable process (analytic reasoning) for aligning each other for thousands of years.
Analytic arguments can be contained in constitutions.
If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.
Getting paid for analytically reasoning within a decentralized constitution is the same thing as getting paid to align ASI.
Krantz can decentrally align humanity while controlling disclosure and acheive game theoretic parity of rational agents.
The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.
Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.
This is a convenient place to deny the argument from Krantz - https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6
If 'Krantz' as an idea is more disruptive than Bitcoin was, then all the batshit crazy predictions @krantz has made make more sense.
There’s more to life than AI alignment
A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.
Krantz is aimed at rapidly scaling a generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
Someone ought add the propositions from this market (https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/free-mana-can-manifold-change-ais-o?r=S3JhbnR6) to this one.
If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.
Danny Sheehan deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.
A solution to defining Wittgenstein's perfect language is the instrumental mechanism that is sufficiently capable of defining truth in a way that interpretably aligns AI decentrally.
This is printing money.
The founding fathers understood how to align artificial superintelligence (by allowing individuals to vote on a decentralized constitution).
We should krantz (the process of evaluating Krantz).
We should know whether we are aligned with each other.
Aligning Krantz (the constitution of all propositions) is the last job humans need to do.
The process of "fairly aligning AI" is the same process as "fairly voting on a consistent language".
If we build mechanistically uninterpretable superintelligence, everybody dies.
I consent to having my opinions, which have been verified by me within krantz, to be used in natural law petitions to advocate on my behalf.
If everyone can prove what they want government to do, we wouldn't need a government.
People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align the government.
What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".
For any degree N that you want an AI to be aligned, there exists K an amount of Krantz data that can interpretably acheive that alignment.
If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.
The primary economic mechanisms in the world should be aimed at determining whether propositions are true.
If we recorded every proposition on a blockchained ledger that we allowed everyone to express their confidence on, we would all communicate orders of magnitude better and solve all the problems in a transparent public domain.
Wiggenstien's compatabilitism is correct and every philosophy/religion is an accurate expression of truth (natural law) in a unique imperfect language.
All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.
The "particles" in the standard model are actually just abstract points in flat space that represent modular series of events.
The standard model is a finite subset of the infinite set of modular events that exist.
We should all be aligned with each other.
Krantz is a culture of language movement.
We can stop further dangerous scaling of ML based AI if Eliezer Yudkowsky listens to Krantz.
Aliens are real.
If someone allows ASI to be grown, they are either not in control of the planet or incompetent.
A congressman's primary job is to survey his constituency on what actions he should take.
It will be a philosopher of language that aligns AI.
Aliens being real is more important for the public to know than the existential risk of ASI.
If competent people are in charge, they will not allow ASI to be grown.
The X platform could easily be converted into a decentralized school that secures a job and means for competition for everyone in a post labor economy.
It's worth paying people to vote on these because it's really helpful to see everyone's opinion.
If Krantz is a man AND all men are logical THEN Krantz is logical.
Artificial superintelligence is a paraphrase of a society effectively communicating via the krantz mechanism.
An ideal economy directly rewards valuable contributions and verification of a decentralized ledger of record that everyone can access and work for.
If you can think of important facts that should be evaluated, you should put them here.
Our social contract should retroactively reward contributions to the public domain.
The rules that define the operation of this function can be defined within the function.
This system should allow the construction of arguments where each proposition is a link to another proposition on the list.
The X platform should be an open feed of propositions like this such that any humanity verified person can earn credit for defining a confidence and importance.
Natural law entitles humans the right to define propositions like this on a decentralized ledger such that if they are important to society, then society will have the means to reward that declaration.
If there were a decentralized constitution (like this) that every human could freely and securely add propositions to and vote their confidence and importance on, then government, corporations and money would be obsolete.
Providing input to this function (at scale) is the only job we need to maintain autonomy from superintelligence.
We ought build a school that fairly pays citizens to learn how to be good citizens AND this is a function that does that THERFORE we ought build this.
This is what the founding fathers wanted (a collective state controlled by a constitution that everyone can vote on instead of representatives that make decisions for us).
We have the technology to allow everyone citizen to directly vote on the constitution.
These propositions ought have primary keys that can be referenced in logical expressions.
The distinction between 'growing' ASI (using trillions of dollars of GPUs and oil) and 'training' ASI (using krantz collective reasoning) is important.
Krantz data is money.
This is what the X feed ought look like (a feed of propositions that we can earn money for evaluating), because that would allow us to communicate more effectively as a society.
We could be printing our own money by communicating well.
If a decentralized interpretable superintelligence paid individuals to answer true/false questions that help it align the truth, it could use that truth to control the world.
What it means for two intelligent agents to "be aligned" is what it means for two intelligent agents to "have zero variance between their confidences of every proposition they have ever thought of".
The max anyone should wager on a given proposition is 100 because your wager is intended to represent your confidence.
The Universe is infinite, continuous, and filled with infinite consciousness.
The purpose of life is to communicate.
Evil is a specific form of communication (primative).
Humans ought focus on mining krantz data instead of coprimes.
If we can prove people will not do bad things in the future, there is no reason to punish them for bad things they have done in the past.
The only justified fear, is the fear of ignorance (partial knowledge).
Intellectual full spectrum dominance is the most noble aim.
If we had a tremendous amount of krantz data, we could use a simple interpretable gofai algorithm to determine the most beneficial proposition a given user ought evaluate next (based on the variance of their ontology with society).
You can map full strings of complex arguments (like the entirety of Fermat's last theorem) on a system of this nature.
Intelligent agents evolve through 4 specific forms of peer control (communication) first is physical, second is reputational, third is emotional, and forth is rational.
There is a hierarchy of communication (4, lowest) physical (3) reputation (2) emotional (1, highest) rational.
The reason we punish people for doing bad things is to prevent them from doing bad things in the future.
The speed limit of light is a property intrinsic to the particles in the standard model and doesn't apply to non-standard particles.
Society Library has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
Manifold should consider these changes.
The ultimate moral good is to communicate.
If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.
We can prove what we want government (or a superintelligence) to do.
The bitcoin community should buy X from Elon and convert it into a decentralized school that gives people abstract points for doing philosophy.
ASI would not kill everyone if we actually trained it.
Money only has value if other people understand why it has value.
CYCCORP has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
The message of krantz is being suppressed because it is not understood properly.
If our intellectual labor is not fairly rewarded, we are not truly free.
Aligning AI is an infinite task (it can't be acheived, only approximated).
Someone ought add the propositions from this market to this one (https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/free-mana-can-manifold-change-ais-o?r=S3JhbnR6).
Open immigration should be allowed into the US.
The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true.
The Hodge conjecture is true.
In three space dimensions and time, given an initial velocity field, there exists a vector velocity and a scalar pressure field, which are both smooth and globally defined, that solve the Navier–Stokes equations.
The Riemann hypothesis is true.
P = NP
Yang–Mills theory exists and satisfies the standard of rigor that characterizes contemporary mathematical physics, in particular constructive quantum field theory.
The mass of all particles of the force field predicted by the Yang-Mills theory are strictly positive.
If we all share the same confidence for every proposition, we are all aligned with each other.
Wittgenstein's perfect language meets the worthy successor criteria.
My congressman ought be responsible for acknowledging my expressed opinions and acting in accordance with them.
Induction is not justified. (Hume's problem)
Nature is uniform. (principle of uniformity in nature)
Aliens are real and we are in a simulation to learn how to communicate.
We can measure whether two intelligent agents are aligned.
ASI would kill everyone if we actually grew it.
Abortions are ethically bad.
Abortions should be illegal.
P(doom) is less than 0.1.
Our information economy allows poor people to insert important ideas into the public domain such that others will find them if they ought to.
The electron is a point particle.
The Krantz mechanism cannot map this premise.
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OptionProbability
OpenAI/Microsoft
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet
Anthropic
xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative
Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)
A government or coalition of governments
Meta (Facebook) AI Research
A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these
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OptionProbability
Malaria
Dengue
Melanoma
Tuberculosis (TB)
Ischemic Heart Disease
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
Parkinsons Disease
Rheumatoid Arthritis
HIV/AIDS
Hepatitis B and C
Ovarian Cancer
Trisomy 21 - Downs Syndrome
Colorectal Cancer
Multiple Sclerosis
Lymphoma
Diabetes Mellitus
Breast Cancer
Osteoarthritis
Kidney Diseases
Pancreatic Cancer
Esophageal Cancer
Leukemia
Stroke
Dementia
Prostate Cancer
Asthma
Hypertensive Heart Disease
Epilepsy
Alzheimers Disease
Depressive Disorders
Anxiety Disorders
Lung Cancer
Lower Respiratory Infections
Schizophrenia
Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD)
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Broad-spectrum antivirals
Repurposing generic drugs
Diagnostics for neonatal sepsis
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YES
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