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Prediction markets for Speech First

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

47.16%chance

15774690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

887

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.48%chance

204643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

8.03%chance

172385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

295

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Jan 18, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

231891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

When will the UK legislate to replace FPTP for general elections?

Apr 4, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:53 AM

13826

OptionProbability

By end of 2050

By end of 2045

By end of 2040

By end of 2035

By end of 2034

By end of 2033

By end of 2032

By end of 2029

By end of 2031

By end of 2028

By end of 2030

By end of 2027

By end of 2026

80

74

67

59

54

52

50

49

45

41

40

12

3

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

May 28, 11:55 PMApr 8, 10:59 PM

31.49%chance

13707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500?

Apr 15, 12:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

9612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

Jun 12, 2:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17412

OptionProbability

2070

2080

2060

Other

AFTER widespread Bitcoin adoption

2050

Lmao

2090

2040

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

15

14

14

12

9

8

7

7

7

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

If a lion could speak, could we understand him?

Jan 30, 11:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.29%chance

11120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

176

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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