Speech First News

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM

15976038

OptionProbability

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

He leaves Argentina during his first term

He travels to Chile during his first term

He travels to Brazil during his first term

He is photographed with Elon Musk

A photo of him with Trump is released

A photo of Milei with Biden is released

His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

He wins reelection to a 2nd term

There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

He travels to Bolivia

Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

He goes incommunicado for at least a week

Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

He marries during his first term

He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

He travels to Russia during his first term

He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

He has a child during his first term

He is excommunicated by the catholic church

Argentina will declare war

He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

He passes away during his first term before completion

There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

He officially converts to Judaism

Will Argentina join BRICS?

Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

100

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

57%chance

14568309

OptionVotes

YES

1276

706

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.81%chance

183829

OptionVotes

YES

1088

919

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

9%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

3180

314

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Jan 18, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

231889

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500?

Apr 15, 12:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

8607

OptionVotes

YES

271

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

Jun 12, 2:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13391

OptionProbability

2080

Other

2070

AFTER widespread Bitcoin adoption

2050

Lmao

2060

2090

2040

2100

2110

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

2120

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Starmer out before Badenoch?

Nov 24, 3:09 PMDec 24, 3:06 PM

46.72%chance

7287

OptionVotes

YES

1068

936

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

48.94%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

126

If a lion could speak, could we understand him?

Jan 30, 11:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.29%chance

11120

OptionVotes

YES

266

176

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

115

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Prediction markets for Speech First

Prediction markets for Speech First

Prediction markets for Speech First

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500?

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Starmer out before Badenoch?

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

If a lion could speak, could we understand him?

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

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