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OptionProbability
If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.
People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align AI.
We can measure the variance in confidence between any two intelligent agent's finite list of various propositions they've evaluated.
Analytic philosophers have had a mechanistically interpretable process (analytic reasoning) for aligning each other for thousands of years.
Analytic arguments can be contained in constitutions.
If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.
Getting paid for analytically reasoning within a decentralized constitution is the same thing as getting paid to align ASI.
Krantz can decentrally align humanity while controlling disclosure and acheive game theoretic parity of rational agents.
The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.
Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.
This is a convenient place to deny the argument from Krantz - https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6
If 'Krantz' as an idea is more disruptive than Bitcoin was, then all the batshit crazy predictions @krantz has made make more sense.
There’s more to life than AI alignment
A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.
Krantz is aimed at rapidly scaling a generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
Someone ought add the propositions from this market (https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/free-mana-can-manifold-change-ais-o?r=S3JhbnR6) to this one.
If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.
Danny Sheehan deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.
A solution to defining Wittgenstein's perfect language is the instrumental mechanism that is sufficiently capable of defining truth in a way that interpretably aligns AI decentrally.
This is printing money.
The founding fathers understood how to align artificial superintelligence (by allowing individuals to vote on a decentralized constitution).
We should krantz (the process of evaluating Krantz).
We should know whether we are aligned with each other.
Aligning Krantz (the constitution of all propositions) is the last job humans need to do.
The process of "fairly aligning AI" is the same process as "fairly voting on a consistent language".
If we build mechanistically uninterpretable superintelligence, everybody dies.
I consent to having my opinions, which have been verified by me within krantz, to be used in natural law petitions to advocate on my behalf.
If everyone can prove what they want government to do, we wouldn't need a government.
People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align the government.
What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".
For any degree N that you want an AI to be aligned, there exists K an amount of Krantz data that can interpretably acheive that alignment.
If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.
The primary economic mechanisms in the world should be aimed at determining whether propositions are true.
If we recorded every proposition on a blockchained ledger that we allowed everyone to express their confidence on, we would all communicate orders of magnitude better and solve all the problems in a transparent public domain.
Wiggenstien's compatabilitism is correct and every philosophy/religion is an accurate expression of truth (natural law) in a unique imperfect language.
All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.
The "particles" in the standard model are actually just abstract points in flat space that represent modular series of events.
The standard model is a finite subset of the infinite set of modular events that exist.
We should all be aligned with each other.
Krantz is a culture of language movement.
We can stop further dangerous scaling of ML based AI if Eliezer Yudkowsky listens to Krantz.
Aliens are real.
If someone allows ASI to be grown, they are either not in control of the planet or incompetent.
A congressman's primary job is to survey his constituency on what actions he should take.
It will be a philosopher of language that aligns AI.
Aliens being real is more important for the public to know than the existential risk of ASI.
If competent people are in charge, they will not allow ASI to be grown.
The X platform could easily be converted into a decentralized school that secures a job and means for competition for everyone in a post labor economy.
It's worth paying people to vote on these because it's really helpful to see everyone's opinion.
If Krantz is a man AND all men are logical THEN Krantz is logical.
Artificial superintelligence is a paraphrase of a society effectively communicating via the krantz mechanism.
An ideal economy directly rewards valuable contributions and verification of a decentralized ledger of record that everyone can access and work for.
If you can think of important facts that should be evaluated, you should put them here.
Our social contract should retroactively reward contributions to the public domain.
The rules that define the operation of this function can be defined within the function.
This system should allow the construction of arguments where each proposition is a link to another proposition on the list.
The X platform should be an open feed of propositions like this such that any humanity verified person can earn credit for defining a confidence and importance.
Natural law entitles humans the right to define propositions like this on a decentralized ledger such that if they are important to society, then society will have the means to reward that declaration.
If there were a decentralized constitution (like this) that every human could freely and securely add propositions to and vote their confidence and importance on, then government, corporations and money would be obsolete.
Providing input to this function (at scale) is the only job we need to maintain autonomy from superintelligence.
We ought build a school that fairly pays citizens to learn how to be good citizens AND this is a function that does that THERFORE we ought build this.
This is what the founding fathers wanted (a collective state controlled by a constitution that everyone can vote on instead of representatives that make decisions for us).
We have the technology to allow everyone citizen to directly vote on the constitution.
These propositions ought have primary keys that can be referenced in logical expressions.
The distinction between 'growing' ASI (using trillions of dollars of GPUs and oil) and 'training' ASI (using krantz collective reasoning) is important.
Krantz data is money.
This is what the X feed ought look like (a feed of propositions that we can earn money for evaluating), because that would allow us to communicate more effectively as a society.
We could be printing our own money by communicating well.
If a decentralized interpretable superintelligence paid individuals to answer true/false questions that help it align the truth, it could use that truth to control the world.
What it means for two intelligent agents to "be aligned" is what it means for two intelligent agents to "have zero variance between their confidences of every proposition they have ever thought of".
The max anyone should wager on a given proposition is 100 because your wager is intended to represent your confidence.
The Universe is infinite, continuous, and filled with infinite consciousness.
The purpose of life is to communicate.
Evil is a specific form of communication (primative).
Humans ought focus on mining krantz data instead of coprimes.
If we can prove people will not do bad things in the future, there is no reason to punish them for bad things they have done in the past.
The only justified fear, is the fear of ignorance (partial knowledge).
Intellectual full spectrum dominance is the most noble aim.
If we had a tremendous amount of krantz data, we could use a simple interpretable gofai algorithm to determine the most beneficial proposition a given user ought evaluate next (based on the variance of their ontology with society).
You can map full strings of complex arguments (like the entirety of Fermat's last theorem) on a system of this nature.
Intelligent agents evolve through 4 specific forms of peer control (communication) first is physical, second is reputational, third is emotional, and forth is rational.
There is a hierarchy of communication (4, lowest) physical (3) reputation (2) emotional (1, highest) rational.
The reason we punish people for doing bad things is to prevent them from doing bad things in the future.
The speed limit of light is a property intrinsic to the particles in the standard model and doesn't apply to non-standard particles.
Society Library has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
Manifold should consider these changes.
The ultimate moral good is to communicate.
If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.
We can prove what we want government (or a superintelligence) to do.
The bitcoin community should buy X from Elon and convert it into a decentralized school that gives people abstract points for doing philosophy.
ASI would not kill everyone if we actually trained it.
Money only has value if other people understand why it has value.
CYCCORP has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
The message of krantz is being suppressed because it is not understood properly.
If our intellectual labor is not fairly rewarded, we are not truly free.
Aligning AI is an infinite task (it can't be acheived, only approximated).
Someone ought add the propositions from this market to this one (https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/free-mana-can-manifold-change-ais-o?r=S3JhbnR6).
Open immigration should be allowed into the US.
The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true.
The Hodge conjecture is true.
In three space dimensions and time, given an initial velocity field, there exists a vector velocity and a scalar pressure field, which are both smooth and globally defined, that solve the Navier–Stokes equations.
The Riemann hypothesis is true.
P = NP
Yang–Mills theory exists and satisfies the standard of rigor that characterizes contemporary mathematical physics, in particular constructive quantum field theory.
The mass of all particles of the force field predicted by the Yang-Mills theory are strictly positive.
If we all share the same confidence for every proposition, we are all aligned with each other.
Wittgenstein's perfect language meets the worthy successor criteria.
My congressman ought be responsible for acknowledging my expressed opinions and acting in accordance with them.
Induction is not justified. (Hume's problem)
Nature is uniform. (principle of uniformity in nature)
Aliens are real and we are in a simulation to learn how to communicate.
We can measure whether two intelligent agents are aligned.
ASI would kill everyone if we actually grew it.
Abortions are ethically bad.
Abortions should be illegal.
P(doom) is less than 0.1.
Our information economy allows poor people to insert important ideas into the public domain such that others will find them if they ought to.
The electron is a point particle.
The Krantz mechanism cannot map this premise.
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OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
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OptionProbability
Proof School
The Nueva School (US)
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OptionProbability
Philadelphia Eagles (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2024-2025)
Kansas City Chiefs (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2023-2024)
Washington Commanders (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 1991-1992)
Detroit Lions (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2008-2009)
Baltimore Ravens (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2012-2013)
Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2008-2009)
Green Bay Packers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2010-2011)
Denver Broncos (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2015-2016)
Buffalo Bills (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1986-1987)
Minnesota Vikings (Last Extreme - N/A)
Houston Texans (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2013-2014)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2020-2021)
Los Angeles Chargers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2003-2004)
Los Angeles Rams (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2021-2022)
San Francisco 49ers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2004-2005)
Miami Dolphins (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2007-2008)
New England Patriots (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2018-2019)
Dallas Cowboys (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 1995-1996)
New York Giants (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2011-2012)
Cincinnati Bengals (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2019-2020)
Chicago Bears (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2022-2023)
Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2021-2022)
Tennessee Titans (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2024-2025)
Indianapolis Colts (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2011-2012)
Atlanta Falcons (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1987-1988)
Carolina Panthers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2023-2024)
New Orleans Saints (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2009-2010)
Las Vegas Raiders (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2006-2007)
Arizona Cardinals (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2018-2019)
Seattle Seahawks (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2013-2014)
New York Jets (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1995-1996)
Cleveland Browns (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2017-2018)
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OptionProbability
Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB
Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)
Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment
Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01
Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01
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NO
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YES
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YES
NO
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
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