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Prediction markets for SPR

Will Lorena Wiebes lose a group sprint before EOY 2027?

Aug 23, 8:01 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

82.7%chance

61399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2187

457

Will a HHMI Investigator be sprung out of Alexey Guzey's NewScience by 2040?

Jan 3, 8:46 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

14.49%chance

11806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

935

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

If H5N1 achieves global human-to-human spread, will it be a dud?

Jan 2, 4:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.86%chance

9464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

848

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

45.09%chance

6439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the Springfield-Greene County Library start circulating video games before December 2029?

Oct 18, 12:38 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

32.21%chance

2330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

661

84

Will the next pandemic be primarily caused or significantly spread by factory farming?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

13313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

941

Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?

Dec 26, 5:44 AMJan 1, 2:00 PM

47.24%chance

17312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

991

Will "How Colds Spread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 11:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.58%chance

3291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

983

Will another member of the Central Military Commission of the PRC be removed from their position before Spring 2028?

Nov 2, 12:48 PMApr 1, 3:59 PM

91%chance

8244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

38

Will Haitian Migrants (legal via TPS) in Springfield Ohio be involuntarily deported by the Trump Administration?

Nov 17, 11:30 PMJan 25, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Will "Sprints" be used by any >$100M market cap blockchain by end of 2027?

Sep 19, 8:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.19%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

72

68

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