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Prediction markets for SPR

Will I successfully graduate college in Spring?

Nov 26, 4:53 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

78.06%chance

12886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1886

530

Will a HHMI Investigator be sprung out of Alexey Guzey's NewScience by 2040?

Jan 3, 8:46 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

14.49%chance

11806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

935

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

Will I reach the ruby palace in OTIS before the 2026 spring semester ends?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

69%chance

9647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

If H5N1 achieves global human-to-human spread, will it be a dud?

Jan 2, 4:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.86%chance

9464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

848

Will the Springfield-Greene County Library start circulating video games before December 2029?

Oct 18, 12:38 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

37.17%chance

1300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

631

100

Will "How Colds Spread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 11:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.58%chance

3291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

983

Will I be (co-)president of Stanford AI Alignment during spring quarter?

Jan 12, 7:14 PMJun 15, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

5275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.41%chance

6263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?

Dec 26, 5:44 AMJan 1, 2:00 PM

49.68%chance

16262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

941

Will the next pandemic be primarily caused or significantly spread by factory farming?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

13213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

941

Springboks vs All Blacks 2026: Who will win the 4-Test Series?

Feb 25, 8:51 PMAug 21, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Springboks (South Africa) win more Tests than NZ

All Blacks (New Zealand) win more Tests than SA

Series Shared / Drawn (Wins are equal)

33

33

33

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