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Prediction markets for SPX

Supreme Court vs Trump Tariffs: Constitutional? | Will the outcome be good for markets?

Nov 6, 5:26 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

151629

OptionProbability

Tariffs ruled unconstitutional + SPX up

Tariffs ruled constitutional + SPX down

Tariffs ruled unconstitutional + SPX down

Other

Tariffs ruled constitutional + SPX up

48

23

13

12

4

SPX > BTC by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:13 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

16.89%chance

91587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2218

451

AI bubble pops before January 2026?

Oct 19, 12:18 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.79%chance

251216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

446

22

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18%chance

18944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

869

Spx 7000 in 2025?

Nov 2, 7:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.52%chance

11918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

77

If Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?

Apr 19, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.5%chance

16293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

What asset class will perform the best over the course of 2025?

Jan 15, 3:23 AMJan 11, 5:59 AM

13244

OptionProbability

Gold

Equities (measured by SPX)

Bitcoin

Bonds (US Treasuries)

51

29

17

3

Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040?

Jun 7, 2:15 AMJan 11, 4:59 AM

35%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87

57

CBOE Putwrite index outperforms SPX (SP-500) over next year?

Jun 27, 11:03 PMAug 1, 11:03 PM

50%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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