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Prediction markets for SQ

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.53%chance

449427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4179

591

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.17%chance

287238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2179

568

Will @squirtle_says get abs in 2025?

Apr 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.02%chance

364932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10761

7308

Will a 3x3 magic square of distinct perfect square numbers be proven impossible by end of 2025?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.59%chance

234810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2401

716

Does a better packing of 17 squares into a square exist?

Feb 10, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.95%chance

392631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

913

Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

7.24%chance

131679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2612

737

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.83%chance

301256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

948

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

Will doughnuts be square in 2030?

Aug 28, 11:47 PMJan 26, 6:59 AM

8.92%chance

26780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

975

963

Does there exist a 3x3 magic square of square numbers?

Mar 8, 7:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.53%chance

7484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Before 2030, will any job not at QURI ask for squiggle proficiency?

Aug 15, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.29%chance

10346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

939

Will there be another peanut the squirrel by EOY 2025? (Mark Longo adopts another?)

Nov 4, 6:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.12%chance

3278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

818

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