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Prediction markets for Squads

Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 World Cup?

Feb 23, 4:59 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99.01%chance

6619476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8190

63

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.19%chance

313467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

827

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.76%chance

201911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

581

Will the German Football Federation successfully transition to Nike by 2027?

Mar 21, 10:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

93.57%chance

101565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

787

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

221036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Will Squadron 42 be released before 2030?

Aug 8, 3:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.48%chance

10589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

127

Sword Squad Stock

May 10, 11:18 PMMay 11, 10:59 PM

6361

OptionProbability

NO

YES

143

55

England WC squad players to start majority of matches

May 26, 7:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4141

OptionProbability

Dan Burn

Anthony Gordon

John Stones

Djed Spence

Ivan Toney

Jarell Quansah

Kobbie Mainoo

Ollie Watkins

Noni Madueke

Dean Henderson

James Trafford

Jordan Henderson

50

50

50

40

40

40

40

40

27

20

20

20

Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?

Aug 14, 6:55 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

32.6%chance

7105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

Will Squadron 42 be commercially released by end of December 31, 2026?

Apr 11, 3:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.65%chance

226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

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