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Prediction markets for Squared

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.06%chance

3110742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4108

360

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.46%chance

459477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

589

Will a 3x3 magic square of distinct perfect square numbers be proven impossible by end of 2025?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.04%chance

306116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3707

625

Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.33%chance

145782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6610

570

Does a better packing of 17 squares into a square exist?

Feb 10, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.95%chance

392631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

913

Will doughnuts be square in 2030?

Aug 28, 11:47 PMJan 26, 6:59 AM

9.8%chance

291865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

876

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.83%chance

301256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

948

Does there exist a 3x3 magic square of square numbers?

Mar 8, 7:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

8534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

671

Will Hamas control more than one square kilometer of contiguous territory in Gaza at the end of 2025?

Nov 30, 7:02 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

62.47%chance

14351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

46

By what year will we discover a 3x3 magic square of perfect squares numbers?

Nov 11, 4:24 AMNov 12, 4:22 AM

9205

OptionProbability

Before 2039

Before 2041

Before 2037

Before 2035

Before 2033

Before 2031

Before 2029

Before 2027

54

54

50

46

35

22

19

6

Net territory gained by Russia in 2025 (in square kilometres)

Nov 3, 11:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

1200

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Union Square in San Francisco have a retail direct vacancy rate lower than 13% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:49 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

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