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Prediction markets for Squared

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.53%chance

449427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4179

591

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.17%chance

287238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2179

568

Will a 3x3 magic square of distinct perfect square numbers be proven impossible by end of 2025?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.59%chance

234810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2401

716

Does a better packing of 17 squares into a square exist?

Feb 10, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.95%chance

392631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

913

Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

7.24%chance

131679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2612

737

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.83%chance

301256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

948

Will doughnuts be square in 2030?

Aug 28, 11:47 PMJan 26, 6:59 AM

8.92%chance

26780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

975

963

Does there exist a 3x3 magic square of square numbers?

Mar 8, 7:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.53%chance

7484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Will the average price per square meter of residential property in Kyiv city center exceed following values by 2030?

Feb 15, 5:39 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3111

OptionProbability

Above 3000 US$

Below 2000 US$

Below 1000 US$

Above 4000 US$

Above 5000 US$

Above 7500 US$

Above 10 000 US$

58

57

50

50

50

42

41

Will the tiananmen square deaths still be censored in China by 2045?

Jun 22, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.8%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will Austin build more than 10M square footage of new construction in 2025?

Jan 4, 9:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.45%chance

478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent this century? (in square kilometers)

Apr 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

85.17%chance

522

OptionProbability

YES

NO

343

238

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