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Top stories

Rep. Larson Calls ICE Agents ‘Gestapo’ at Connecticut Protest

US Domestic Policy

Rep. Larson Calls ICE Agents ‘Gestapo’ at Connecticut Protest

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for SS

Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?

Jun 19, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.11%chance

614865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

982

In what year will an explicitly queer Disney prince(ss) film be released for the first time?

Aug 16, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

242644

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2028-2029

2026-2027

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2024-2025

2025-2026

21

16

8

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

SSI/Ilya ship an AI before July 2026?

Nov 27, 5:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

23.24%chance

162520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

550

Will SSDs become cheaper per TB than HDDs by 2030?

Dec 28, 10:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.6%chance

482187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

718

Will a human player defeat the SSBM AI Phillip in 2025?

Nov 20, 2:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13%chance

62130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?

Apr 5, 4:33 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.49%chance

341882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

936

SSA payments delayed by COBOL-Java migration by EOY2025?

Mar 29, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.26%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will there be any living veterans of the 12th SS Panzer Division Hitlerjugend left by 2038?

Jul 8, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.9%chance

3205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

Median absolute difference between SSBMRank 2025 and AlgoRank 2025 under 3.5?

Sep 5, 3:35 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

42.7%chance

3184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

863

Will there be any living veterans from the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician) left by the beginning of 2030?

Jan 7, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.1%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

109

Average absolute difference between SSBMRank 2025 and AlgoRank 2025 under 5?

Sep 5, 3:37 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

50.25%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

Will Martin Picard run a study involving SS-31?

Nov 28, 10:52 PM

00

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