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Top stories

Rep. Larson Calls ICE Agents ‘Gestapo’ at Connecticut Protest

US Domestic Policy

Rep. Larson Calls ICE Agents ‘Gestapo’ at Connecticut Protest

Authors

4

8 months ago

Prediction markets for SS

Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?

Jun 19, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.78%chance

625090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

SSI/Ilya ship an AI before July 2026?

Nov 27, 5:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

10.35%chance

293961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2942

340

In what year will an explicitly queer Disney prince(ss) film be released for the first time?

Aug 16, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

242644

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2028-2029

2026-2027

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2024-2025

2025-2026

21

16

8

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?

Apr 13, 1:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

132409

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later

2025

28

28

16

14

13

1

Will SSDs become cheaper per TB than HDDs by 2030?

Dec 28, 10:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

512341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

864

Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?

Apr 5, 4:33 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.49%chance

341882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

936

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.64%chance

171605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

762

Will Mang0 ever be the #1 SSBM player again before retiring?

Jul 24, 12:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.59%chance

7448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

518

19

Will at least 1 SSBSG member qualify for an International olympiad this year?

Apr 18, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.1%chance

3410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

340

Will there be any living veterans of the 12th SS Panzer Division Hitlerjugend left by 2038?

Jul 8, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.9%chance

3205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

Will there be any living veterans from the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician) left by the beginning of 2030?

Jan 7, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.1%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

109

Will Martin Picard run a study involving SS-31?

Nov 28, 10:52 PM

00

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