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SSI News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

180540238

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

GPT-6.5

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Grok 5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Gemini 4

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

90

88

88

87

85

85

84

83

82

80

79

78

69

65

47

32

25

13

10

10

9

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?

Apr 13, 1:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

368758

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2030 or later

2028

2029

2025

44

33

12

5

5

1

Which company will create AGI first?

Dec 7, 7:13 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

977653

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

US Government

DeepMind

people not employed by a company

Communist Party of China

Other

google brain

N/A

Nvidia

character.ai

microsoft

Meta

None of the above

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

xAI

DeepSeek

Tesla

eleutherai

Keen

32

28

10

6

5

5

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?

Jun 19, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.24%chance

677491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2152

465

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

Will SSI have a "moment"?

Sep 5, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.69%chance

211382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

56

When will SSI announce a model?

Sep 20, 9:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81145

OptionProbability

Q1 2027

Q4 2026

Later/Never

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

Q1 2028

Q2 2028

Q3 2028

Q4 2028

Q1 2029

Q2 2029

Q3 2029

Q4 2029

37

30

8

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

When will SSI release their first model?

Sep 25, 10:16 PMSep 25, 10:14 PM

17790

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2027

2028 or later

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

before Jul 2026

30

30

28

11

1

Will SSI do anything I consider interesting before 2027?

Jul 27, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.07%chance

12359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

SSI Top: SSI model #1 on ECI before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.74%chance

5215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

985

Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?

Apr 28, 5:55 PMJan 1, 6:54 PM

45.39%chance

5133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

228

SSI's secret sauce is test-time training?

Jun 24, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:38 PM

61.51%chance

4130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

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