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SSI News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160478553

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Grok 5

GPT-6

Gemini 4

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Gemini 3.5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

88

84

83

83

79

79

74

74

72

65

61

56

52

49

44

26

19

19

18

13

10

6

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?

Apr 13, 1:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

307812

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later

2025

48

40

4

4

4

1

Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?

Jun 19, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.24%chance

677491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2152

465

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

21.13%chance

256169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1935

518

Which company will create AGI first?

Dec 7, 7:13 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

885932

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

US Government

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Communist Party of China

DeepMind

Other

people not employed by a company

N/A

Meta

xAI

DeepSeek

Nvidia

Tesla

eleutherai

character.ai

microsoft

google brain

None of the above

Keen

26

17

12

11

8

7

7

6

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144368

OptionProbability

Anthropic / Claude

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

Meta / Llama

DeepSeek

Microsoft

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Mistral

Apple

100

100

70

33

11

8

5

2

2

1

Will Chat GPT 6 release before SSI releases their first model?

Jun 22, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.48%chance

141056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

919

43

When will SSI release their first model?

Sep 25, 10:16 PMSep 25, 10:14 PM

12580

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2026

Jul-Dec 2027

2028 or later

Jan-Jun 2027

before Jul 2026

54

15

15

14

1

Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August?

Aug 4, 9:06 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

26.23%chance

9345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

60

Will SSI do anything I consider interesting before 2027?

Jul 27, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

10266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?

Apr 28, 5:55 PMJan 1, 6:54 PM

45.39%chance

5133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

228

SSI's secret sauce is test-time training?

Jun 24, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:38 PM

61.51%chance

4130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

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