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Prediction markets for Stake

Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company) before end of 2025?

Sep 27, 5:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

666432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1871

391

Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030?

Nov 30, 8:58 PMDec 15, 3:00 PM

5.91%chance

223116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

959

Will Bitcoin become Proof of Stake before the end of 2025?

Dec 7, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.82%chance

332791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

866

Public statement that Apple owns a stake in OpenAI before EOY 2025?

Aug 29, 7:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.99%chance

192557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2292

436

Will UniCredit successfully acquire a majority stake in Commerzbank by 2025?

Sep 19, 8:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

18.37%chance

112447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2113

479

Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030?

Nov 30, 8:57 PMDec 15, 3:00 PM

8.4%chance

122428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

468

104

What stake will OpenAI's non-profit have in its for-profit arm, if restructured?

Jan 3, 5:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32355

OptionProbability

Fraction of voting shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of profit allocated to non-profit

29

25

14

Will the NFL take a stake in ESPN by the end of 2025?

Jan 17, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.24%chance

321694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2043

671

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will the Trump family acquire a stake in Binance by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 5:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.27%chance

5171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

63

46

29

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01?

Apr 4, 12:53 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

110

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