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Prediction markets for Standard

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?

Oct 30, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.01%chance

292209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

916

Will OpenAI become a standard C Corp before 2027

Nov 22, 10:45 PMDec 23, 11:59 PM

22.25%chance

26878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

956

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will women lower their standards for men on average by 2033?

Mar 26, 12:32 AMMar 26, 11:59 PM

20.5%chance

17776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

926

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Feb 21, 9:22 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

67.88%chance

30627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

989

By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs?

Oct 4, 7:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

28.08%chance

16607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

908

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.11%chance

23578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

958

Will the standard model iPhone 17 get a 120 hz screen?

Jul 13, 3:02 PMSep 10, 3:01 PM

48.7%chance

8515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

974

Will I reach 5 digit (<rank 99999) in osu! standard before 2026

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

51%chance

7507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

677

Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:42 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

39.06%chance

7290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Which diagram resource URI pattern will become the MCP standard by end of 2025?

Apr 3, 5:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

diagram://host/id

diag://host/id/version

diagram+http://host/id

mcp://diagram/id

resource://mcp/diagram/id

20

20

20

20

20

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