Standard General News

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.74%chance

606411969

OptionVotes

YES

17459

7444

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369429

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.34%chance

52119127

OptionVotes

YES

1814

949

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

22945

4656

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.33%chance

695805

OptionVotes

YES

2438

2205

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

1836

545

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.25%chance

22545

OptionVotes

YES

1137

934

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

YES

1160

862

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

YES

1081

955

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Standard General News

Prediction markets for Standard General

Prediction markets for Standard General

Prediction markets for Standard General

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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