Standard General News

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48%chance

640543230

OptionVotes

YES

15391

9326

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

95383547

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

113369539

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.15%chance

60163934

OptionVotes

YES

2117

945

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

5.11%chance

7969133

OptionVotes

YES

43807

2575

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

72.59%chance

357380

OptionVotes

YES

1425

745

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.31%chance

296967

OptionVotes

YES

1324

755

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

28.3%chance

705905

OptionVotes

YES

2357

2237

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

1836

545

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

1066

1035

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Standard General News

Prediction markets for Standard General

Prediction markets for Standard General

Prediction markets for Standard General

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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