Standard General News

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.72%chance

708696396

OptionVotes

YES

22531

4727

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

112449970

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.42%chance

420234233

OptionVotes

YES

2658

377

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

4110178

OptionVotes

YES

2066

486

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

2300

2259

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

10.09%chance

364362

OptionVotes

YES

2985

335

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

6632

3220

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

1836

545

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

31541

OptionVotes

YES

4299

1739

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

YES

1115

1009

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Standard General News

Prediction markets for Standard General

Prediction markets for Standard General

Prediction markets for Standard General

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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