Standard Group News

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.44%chance

13686082

OptionVotes

YES

6685

1740

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

79.3%chance

264319

OptionVotes

YES

1958

511

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

YES

7894

5344

Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

482809

OptionProbability

Authoritarian Leadership

Forcible Suppression of Opposition

Extreme Nationalism and/or Race-Based Policies

Militarism and Political Violence

Regimentation of Society and Economy

Rejection of Pluralism and Democracy

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

262000

OptionProbability

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.15%chance

9461

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Is the Koide formula correct?

Dec 4, 5:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.57%chance

7251

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

47.09%chance

3136

OptionVotes

YES

1060

943

Will GAAP and IFRS converge by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.96%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

119

How pro-trans agenda are you?

Jan 9, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1490

Standard Group News

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

Is the Koide formula correct?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Will GAAP and IFRS converge by the end of 2030?

How pro-trans agenda are you?

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