Standard Group News

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.47%chance

13786084

OptionVotes

YES

6605

1742

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.6%chance

1014031

OptionVotes

YES

6376

157

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

2588

1201

2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

Mar 4, 7:34 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

32257

OptionProbability

Money to Burn: Leon Black, Apollo and the Remaking of Wall Street | William D. Cohan

Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs | Lloyd Blankfein

Project Maven | Katrina Manson

We Know You Can Pay a Million | Anja Shortland

1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World | Liaquat Ahamed

Off the Scales | Aimee Donnellan

The Rise and Fall of the Artificial State | Jill Lepore

Prophecy | Carissa Véliz

Blood Will Flow | Alex Perry

How Africa Works | Joe Studwell

The Infinity Machine | Sebastian Mallaby

The UPS Man | Marc Levinson

Bonfire of the Murdochs | Gabriel Sherman

Hyperscale | Paris Marx

Frontierlands | Hazel Sheffield

I Am Not a Robot: My Year Using AI to Do (Almost) Everything | Joanna Stern

Steve Jobs in Exile | Geoffrey Cain

Inside the Box | David Epstein

The Age of Extraction | Tim Wu

London Falling | Patrick Radden Keefe

House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing | Justin Baer

The Curious Case of Mike Lynch: The Improbable Life & Death of a Tech Billionaire | Katie Prescot

Control Science: How Management Made the Modern World by Henry Sno

Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad . . . and How Great Companies Stay Great by Eric Ries

Adrift in the South by Xiao Hai

Plastic Inc.: Big Oil, Big Money and the Plan to Trash Our Future by Beth Gardiner

The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth by Nicolas Niarchos

Robot-Proof: When Machines Have All the Answers, Build Better People by Vivienne Ming

Other

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

262000

OptionProbability

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.04%chance

7350

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

Will there be scientific consensus that Polynesians made Pre-Columbian contact with South Americans?

May 13, 5:16 AMMay 20, 5:11 AM

44.31%chance

8313

OptionVotes

YES

1121

892

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

YES

994

Is the Koide formula correct?

Dec 4, 5:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.57%chance

7251

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 9:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.06%chance

441

OptionVotes

YES

1033

953

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

Standard Group News

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Will there be scientific consensus that Polynesians made Pre-Columbian contact with South Americans?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Is the Koide formula correct?

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

Will Ford Emissions end at?

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