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Prediction markets for Standard Group

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.47%chance

13786084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6605

1742

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

72.83%chance

284419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

611

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.52%chance

383921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7881

5345

will ram prices go down by the end of 2027

Mar 21, 7:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

112988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

111046

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Voluntary transition of power

Venezuela-style puppet state

33

18

17

15

11

4

2

1

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.84%chance

9471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

704

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Is the Koide formula correct?

Dec 4, 5:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.57%chance

7251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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