Standard Group News

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.47%chance

13786084

OptionVotes

YES

6605

1742

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

76.07%chance

274369

OptionVotes

YES

1783

561

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

YES

7894

5344

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

262000

OptionProbability

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.15%chance

9461

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Is the Koide formula correct?

Dec 4, 5:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.57%chance

7251

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

251

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

48.19%chance

5159

OptionVotes

YES

1037

964

Will GAAP and IFRS converge by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.96%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

119

Standard Group News

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

Is the Koide formula correct?

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Will GAAP and IFRS converge by the end of 2030?

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