Standard Group News

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.47%chance

13786084

OptionVotes

YES

6605

1742

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

will ram prices go down by the end of 2027

Mar 21, 7:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.65%chance

122989

OptionVotes

YES

158

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

181345

OptionProbability

Deal with minimal concessions

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with major concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

Will Quantumscape & PowerCo confirm initial sample production of QS-enabled Unified Cell in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.79%chance

11755

OptionVotes

YES

288

2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

Mar 4, 7:34 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

1284

OptionProbability

Other

The Curious Case of Mike Lynch: The Improbable Life & Death of a Tech Billionaire | Katie Prescot

House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing | Justin Baer

Inside the Box | David Epstein

The Age of Extraction | Tim Wu

I Am Not a Robot: My Year Using AI to Do (Almost) Everything | Joanna Stern

Steve Jobs in Exile | Geoffrey Cain

London Falling | Patrick Radden Keefe

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

Is the Koide formula correct?

Dec 4, 5:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.57%chance

7251

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

284

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

Standard Group News

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Prediction markets for Standard Group

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

will ram prices go down by the end of 2027

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Will Quantumscape & PowerCo confirm initial sample production of QS-enabled Unified Cell in 2026?

2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Is the Koide formula correct?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will Ford Emissions end at?

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