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Prediction markets for Standard Intelligence

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

23

9

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10568

9573

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

Sep 14, 5:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

9526054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2302

1940

Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

91676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

547

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will non-human intelligence be confirmed before artificial general intelligence?

Dec 25, 2:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.54%chance

21493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

746

Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?

Sep 9, 11:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.08%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

67

Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027?

Aug 20, 12:44 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

92.43%chance

11350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

29

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

90

Will a post AGI future (If AGI is created and doesn’t wipe out humanity) be really nice and compassionate to criminals ?

Jul 28, 11:30 PMJan 1, 12:13 AM

70.53%chance

8148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

85

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

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