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Standard Intelligence News

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

23

9

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10424

9668

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

Sep 14, 5:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

9425554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1987

1921

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.07%chance

275257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2989

335

What will be the first ten countries to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Feb 18, 6:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

401537

OptionProbability

China

Singapore

South Korea

Japan

Israel

UAE

Thailand

USA

Taiwan

Mexico

Canada

Denmark

Estonia

Germany

Saudi Arabia

El Salvador

India

France

Brazil

UK

87

70

69

66

62

56

52

51

50

50

48

47

45

45

43

40

39

35

28

17

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

21885

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Judges < 2040

Teacher < 2040

53

45

36

36

35

34

28

28

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

364

103

Will non-human intelligence be confirmed before artificial general intelligence?

Dec 25, 2:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.54%chance

21493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

746

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

90

Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?

Jun 19, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

8112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

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