Standard International News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

YES

1927

1123

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.94%chance

83978

OptionVotes

YES

5759

103

Will Zelensky remain president of Ukraine until the end of 2026?

Nov 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.98%chance

233733

OptionVotes

YES

3639

275

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.59%chance

122334

OptionVotes

YES

2787

359

Will bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

Sep 29, 1:01 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

33.32%chance

251596

OptionVotes

YES

1415

707

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

1907

524

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

1349

746

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

1137

918

Free Elections in Cuba before the end of 2027

Feb 7, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.03%chance

13485

OptionVotes

YES

1299

904

Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?

Jan 7, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.64%chance

13250

OptionVotes

YES

1161

943

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 9:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.48%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

1026

963

Standard International News

Prediction markets for Standard International

Prediction markets for Standard International

Prediction markets for Standard International

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Will Zelensky remain president of Ukraine until the end of 2026?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Will bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Free Elections in Cuba before the end of 2027

Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

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