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Prediction markets for Standard International

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.9%chance

9484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

804

Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?

Jan 6, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.48%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

462

22

Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?

Jan 7, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.64%chance

13250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

943

How will my vibe-coded rewrite of a SoTA genomics program perform?

Jan 7, 9:14 PMFeb 15, 8:47 PM

13228

OptionProbability

More than 10% worse

More than 3% worse, less than 10% worse

Re-write is too non-functional to compute accuracy

Within 3%, better or worse

More than 3% better

34

30

15

14

7

How many independent time zones will the Moon have in 2030?

Mar 23, 7:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10196

OptionProbability

0 Time Zones on the Moon in 2030

1 Time Zone on the Moon in 2030

2+ Time Zones on the Moon in 2030

72

21

7

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.74%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

31

Will Israel hand over Hamas-free parts of Gaza to Trump's ISF?

Oct 20, 12:40 AMOct 7, 7:02 PM

50%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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