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Prediction markets for Standard International

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

9.34%chance

7655933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31227

3511

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?

Jan 26, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

342027

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2032

2030

2031

2040

2036

2037

2025

2034

2038

2039

2028

2035

2027

2029

2033

2024

11

10

8

7

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

1

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

Marijuana rescheduled to III or deductions allowed on federal taxes?

Jul 29, 2:24 AMJan 1, 3:20 AM

13.55%chance

11776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

Will ""AI achieves silver-medal standard solving In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 26, 6:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

3392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?

Jan 7, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.64%chance

13250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

943

How many independent time zones will the Moon have in 2030?

Mar 23, 7:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10196

OptionProbability

0 Time Zones on the Moon in 2030

1 Time Zone on the Moon in 2030

2+ Time Zones on the Moon in 2030

72

21

7

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.74%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

31

China no propagation regulation to come into effect in July 2026?

Nov 26, 3:20 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

62.48%chance

375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

78

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