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Prediction markets for STAR Market

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.99%chance

93816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will the official USA flag have >50 stars by 2030? 🇺🇸

Jan 16, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.75%chance

203266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2740

365

Will Star Trek: Starfleet Academy have a 70% or higher Popcornmeter score exactly one month after final release date?

Jan 7, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.32%chance

52007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2266

442

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

823

Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2028?

Apr 24, 7:50 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

25.17%chance

191396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1804

313

What percentage of Milky Way stars have >0 planets?

Nov 2, 8:34 AMJun 15, 10:59 PM

73.46%chance

271001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

968

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Mar 11, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.01%chance

5850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

546

Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?

Sep 17, 2:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.89%chance

22786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

869

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will "The Hunt for Ben Solo" (or substantially similar film) be released before 2030?

Oct 23, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.89%chance

4366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

732

[Amplified 10x] How many stars will be on the official flag of China on Mar 1? [Resolves to PROB]

Jan 16, 3:26 AMMar 2, 12:00 AM

50%chance

5332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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