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Prediction markets for STAR Market

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

9.28%chance

214429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

320

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.99%chance

93816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

823

Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025?

Oct 21, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

51512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

453

Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2028?

Apr 24, 7:50 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

25.17%chance

191396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1804

313

What percentage of Milky Way stars have >0 planets?

Nov 2, 8:34 AMJun 15, 10:59 PM

73.46%chance

271001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

968

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Mar 11, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.01%chance

5850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

546

Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?

Sep 17, 2:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.89%chance

22786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

869

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

73.96%chance

18653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

769

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will "The Hunt for Ben Solo" (or substantially similar film) be released before 2030?

Oct 23, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.42%chance

3266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

790

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