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Prediction markets for STAR Market

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.47%chance

177227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2427

402

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo stay with Milwaukee Bucks for the 2025-26 season?

Apr 30, 3:39 PMMay 1, 12:00 AM

84.76%chance

265539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2358

424

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.99%chance

93816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

823

Will Juan Soto spend more than 15 days on the injured list during the 2025 regular season?

Jan 2, 11:52 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

25.46%chance

71569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

What percentage of Milky Way stars have >0 planets?

Nov 2, 8:34 AMJun 15, 10:59 PM

73.7%chance

27992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

977

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Mar 11, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.01%chance

5850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

546

Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2028?

Apr 24, 7:50 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

49.48%chance

18846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

634

Will the supermassive dark star candidates observed by JWST exhibit spectroscopy consistent with dark stars?

Sep 22, 9:07 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

18.49%chance

17787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

882

Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?

Sep 17, 2:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.89%chance

22786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

869

Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025?

Oct 21, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.8%chance

3252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

946

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.67%chance

12166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

961

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