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Prediction markets for STAR Market

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

379

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

9.28%chance

214429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

320

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Will the official USA flag have >50 stars by 2030? 🇺🇸

Jan 16, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.98%chance

203287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2589

386

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

Will the Michael Jackson biopic include a white Michael Jackson?

Jan 31, 12:53 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9%chance

181811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1947

46

Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2028?

Apr 24, 7:50 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

23.83%chance

201441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1849

299

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?

Sep 17, 2:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.89%chance

22786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

869

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will Spaceballs 2 have a higher Rotten Tomatoes rating than Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu?

May 22, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:17 AM

61.72%chance

11380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

788

Will "The Hunt for Ben Solo" (or substantially similar film) be released before 2030?

Oct 23, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.89%chance

4366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

732

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