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Prediction markets for Starling

By when will Starliner-1 launch?

Jun 8, 2:41 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

26101131

OptionProbability

2027-12-31

2027-06-30

2026-12-31

2025-03-31

2025-06-30

2025-09-30

2025-12-31

74

59

1

0

0

0

0

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

Jun 25, 12:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.95%chance

2920277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10223

98

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2026?

Jan 14, 3:06 AMJan 1, 1:30 AM

5.45%chance

388582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3633

614

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?

Jan 14, 3:07 AMJan 1, 2:56 AM

16.57%chance

297691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2065

166

Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?

Aug 25, 9:02 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

64.02%chance

425799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

750

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

Will Starlink launch their own phone before 2028?

Oct 17, 11:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

21.16%chance

141260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1930

518

Will Starlink join the S&P 500?

Jan 7, 11:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.47%chance

14647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

929

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.63%chance

19627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

947

Would Starlink keep providing coverage in case of an all out nuclear war?

Jan 15, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.21%chance

21576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

922

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.58%chance

8389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

841

Will Elon Musk disable Ukraine's access to Starlink before the end of the war?

Oct 26, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.17%chance

4377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1375

809

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