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Prediction markets for Startup Fund

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.89%chance

8313640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5343

2013

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

654

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Apr 11, 2:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

181106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

882

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.29%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1582

796

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.24%chance

11554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

889

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

Will Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 2026

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will Chaotic Capital and 1517 Fund both co-invest in the same startup by EOY2027?

Jul 28, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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