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Prediction markets for Startup Fund

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.52%chance

1718130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17131

5858

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.05%chance

526344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3433

2472

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Dec 16, 11:47 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

271223

OptionProbability

AI Infrastructure Hardware (GPUs, TPUs, etc.)

SOTA Text-To-Speech

AI Powered Consumer Device (pins, glasses, speakers, etc.)

AI Language Coach (like Speek)

Non-English SOTA LLM

Legal AI (like Harvey)

AI Speech Coach

AI-Powered Kids Toy

94

81

78

66

54

36

33

31

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Apr 11, 2:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.49%chance

171091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

884

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.91%chance

19761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

880

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Will Y Combinator fund 3 or more quantum-related startups in its next public batch update within the next 2 months?

Jan 20, 9:49 PMMar 20, 9:49 PM

60.54%chance

6412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

Will Chaotic Capital and 1517 Fund both co-invest in the same startup by EOY2027?

Jul 28, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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