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State AGs News

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMJan 2, 1:10 AM

12.42%chance

65384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2656

377

One year after AGI is built, what will be the interest rate (%) in the United States?

May 23, 9:09 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

174935

OptionProbability

0.28-0.92

0.92-1.56

1.56-2.2

2.2-2.84

2.84-3.48

3.48-4.12

4.12-4.76

4.76-5.4

5.4-6.04

6.04-6.68

6.68-7.32

7.32-7.96

7.96-8.6

-1--0.36

-0.36-0.28

8.6-9.24

9.24-9.88

9.88-10.52

10.52-11.16

11.16-11.8

11.8-12.44

12.44-13.08

13.08-13.72

13.72-14.36

14.36-15

15-15.64

15.64-16.28

16.28-16.92

16.92-17.56

17.56-18.2

18.2-18.84

18.84-19.48

19.48-20.12

20.12-20.76

20.76-21.4

21.4-22.04

22.04-22.68

22.68-23.32

23.32-23.96

23.96-24.6

24.6-25.24

25.24-25.88

25.88-26.52

26.52-27.16

27.16-27.8

27.8-28.44

28.44-29.08

29.08-29.72

29.72-30.36

30.36-30.64

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

10.31%chance

114231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2949

339

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

223816

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

55

54

53

49

44

43

38

36

31

15

When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?

May 5, 8:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

91062

OptionProbability

2026.4-2026.5

2026.5-2026.6

2026.6-2026.7

2026.7-2026.8

2026.8-2026.9

2027.7-2027.8

2027.8-2027.9

2027.9-2028

2028-2028.1

2028.1-2028.2

2028.2-2028.3

2028.3-2028.4

2028.4-2028.5

2028.5-2028.6

2028.6-2028.7

2028.7-2028.8

2027.3-2027.4

2027.4-2027.5

2027.5-2027.6

2027.6-2027.7

2028.8-2028.9

2028.9-2029

2029-2029.1

2029.1-2029.2

2029.2-2029.3

2029.3-2029.4

2029.4-2029.5

2024.5-2024.6

2024.6-2024.7

2024.7-2024.8

2024.8-2024.9

2024.9-2025

2025-2025.1

2025.1-2025.2

2025.2-2025.3

2025.3-2025.4

2025.4-2025.5

2025.5-2025.6

2025.6-2025.7

2025.7-2025.8

2025.8-2025.9

2025.9-2026

2026-2026.1

2026.1-2026.2

2026.2-2026.3

2026.3-2026.4

2026.9-2027

2027-2027.1

2027.1-2027.2

2027.2-2027.3

28

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will any US state lower the minimum drinking age by 2030?

Mar 28, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.51%chance

15358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will any US state lower the voting age below 18 by 2030?

Aug 2, 5:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.81%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

139

Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?

Mar 14, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.8%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

168

Will Polish government agree to reduce EU member state veto privileges before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

99

Are 'Nothing happens - strait stays closed […]' and 'Strait is open for non aggressive states' mutually exclusive?

Mar 29, 8:33 AM

230

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