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Prediction markets for State Assemblies

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4756

624

Karol Nawrocki sworn in as President of Poland on August 6?

Jun 24, 3:03 PMAug 6, 2:53 PM

94%chance

185881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3958

253

2025 Tasmanian state election winner

Jun 11, 12:33 PMAug 12, 12:59 AM

183189

OptionProbability

Liberal

Labor

Greens

Other

63

37

0

0

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

312810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1844

761

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

46.74%chance

14929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

UK recognizes Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September 2025

Jul 29, 8:41 PMSep 25, 11:59 PM

71.15%chance

11910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1570

637

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

How many G7 countries recognize Palestine by end of 2026?

Jul 29, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15548

Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?

Nov 5, 3:13 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

7.22%chance

12378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

963

Martial law declared in Korea in 2025?

Dec 4, 12:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.77%chance

8372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

22

Will there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?

Apr 4, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.73%chance

11220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

917

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

56.53%chance

5150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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