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Prediction markets for State Board of Elections

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

Dec 2, 1:11 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

2321237

OptionProbability

Kansas

Ohio

Alaska

Maine

Iowa

Michigan

Texas

Nebraska

New Hampshire

Other

Georgia

North Carolina

Montana

Tennessee

Kentucky

Florida

73

10

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will Joe Biden win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1.61%chance

2311669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6066

733

Will Donald Trump win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.63%chance

239158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3214

816

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will Donald Trump run for mayor of nyc in 2029?

Aug 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.95%chance

5186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

99

How many votes will Dean Roy get?

May 23, 5:22 PMNov 10, 6:17 PM

3183

OptionProbability

6,000-29,999

1,000-5,999

30,000+

<100

100-999

36

25

22

9

8

Will either major US political party split by 2029?

Jan 30, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.33%chance

10160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will the GOP Gain Kentucky in the 2027 Governeur election?

Nov 6, 4:26 PMNov 2, 11:01 PM

66.51%chance

462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

Who will be the next City Councilmember for Los Angeles CD 4

Nov 5, 4:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

235

OptionProbability

Jesse Gabriel

Nick Melvoin

Henry Stern

Ethan Weaver

Other

Adam Conover

18

17

17

17

17

15

Will there be ANY challenge or interference with the 2026 Mississippi Senate race?

Nov 7, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.97%chance

214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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