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Prediction markets for State Board of Elections

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will Joe Biden win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1.61%chance

2311669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6066

733

Will Donald Trump win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.63%chance

239158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3214

816

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

Dec 2, 1:11 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

183697

OptionProbability

Ohio

Texas

Alaska

Maine

Iowa

Michigan

Nebraska

Other

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Florida

Kansas

Montana

Kentucky

Georgia

Tennessee

15

13

13

10

10

10

6

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

61825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7470

5142

Who will win the November 2026 election for the Texas State Senate District 9 seat?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

5596

OptionProbability

Taylor Rehmet

Leigh Wambsganss

Other

76

18

6

Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?

Jun 24, 4:52 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

14%chance

1207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will Donald Trump run for mayor of nyc in 2029?

Aug 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.95%chance

5186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

99

How many votes will Dean Roy get?

May 23, 5:22 PMNov 10, 6:17 PM

2182

OptionProbability

6,000-29,999

1,000-5,999

30,000+

<100

100-999

36

25

22

9

8

Will either major US political party split by 2029?

Jan 30, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.12%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

Will Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown win Mahoning County in the OH-SEN election?

Sep 19, 2:10 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

81.52%chance

4112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

48

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