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Prediction markets for State for Industry

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.59%chance

913193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15073

7129

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

22.28%chance

569159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7326

4245

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.92%chance

113578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13205

7968

The US becomes much more like shadowrun by the end of 2025

Jan 3, 8:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.25%chance

93101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3577

280

What will be the price of 1kg of room-temperature ambient pressure superconductor in 2033?

Aug 3, 4:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

80.28%chance

201472

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1099

901

Will a neurotech company face a lawsuit over unauthorized brain data collection in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.58%chance

91361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2243

446

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.9%chance

8652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

684

Will the Alaska 737 MAX depressurization incident substantially impact Alaska’s acquisition of Hawaiian airlines?

Jan 7, 2:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

951

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2028?

Aug 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.77%chance

290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2027?

Aug 26, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

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