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State of the Industry News

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29132

4187

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.72%chance

1113949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15823

6827

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.81%chance

183829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

919

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

121950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

734

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

7432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2028?

Aug 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.77%chance

290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2027?

Aug 26, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

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