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State of the Industry News

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.03%chance

1927975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31877

3892

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.13%chance

1214199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16073

6733

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

6010049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5703

4805

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.38%chance

175992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14789

6762

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.48%chance

204643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.79%chance

33501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12321

8650

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2028?

Aug 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.77%chance

290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2027?

Aug 26, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

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