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Prediction markets for State Parks

Will Trump exact punishment on South Park?

Jul 28, 3:54 PMDec 31, 4:46 PM

21.47%chance

473442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

523

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.32%chance

4743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

582

Elon Musk charged with Wisconsin state law violation in 2025?

Mar 28, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.91%chance

20474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

60.07%chance

8469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

815

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

48.93%chance

6283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will South Park season 27 criticize Israel or the United States' support for Israel?

Apr 2, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.69%chance

10249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Will Glacier National Park have glaciers in 2032?

Dec 9, 5:33 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.58%chance

7183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

258

136

Will any current National Park lose land area during this presidential term?

Mar 5, 12:15 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.77%chance

11158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

74

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

265

OptionProbability

Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

Other

73

27

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Sarah Rascón

Other

Juan Camacho

Wendy Carrillo

Sara Hernandez

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

18

18

17

16

16

16

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