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Prediction markets for State Parks

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Can I get into the 2026 World Cup final for under $500 by showing up at the stadium 30 minutes before kickoff?

May 21, 6:57 PMJul 18, 12:00 PM

4.52%chance

93644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4597

218

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10 (or equivalent)?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

161954

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

Cameron Kasky

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

33%chance

81122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

81012

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

Other

NYC

SLC

23

17

14

14

14

9

8

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2484

OptionProbability

Sara Hernandez

Sarah Rascón

Wendy Carrillo

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

Other

Juan Camacho

72

10

9

4

3

2

Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat?

Jun 15, 4:58 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

4230

OptionProbability

Eric Lucan

Jackie Elward

Other

61

37

2

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 28th State Senate district

Jun 16, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2170

OptionProbability

Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (incumbent)

Other

88

12

Will any current National Park lose land area during this presidential term?

Mar 5, 12:15 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.77%chance

11158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

74

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3155

OptionProbability

Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

Other

87

13

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Jun 23, 12:54 AMJun 23, 12:53 AM

468

OptionProbability

Seattle

SF

North Carolina (extended family here)

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

NYC

17

16

14

14

14

14

12

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