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Prediction markets for State Parks

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18772

5327

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10 (or equivalent)?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

161954

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

Cameron Kasky

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41263

OptionProbability

Sara Hernandez

Sarah Rascón

Wendy Carrillo

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

Juan Camacho

Other

76

21

1

1

1

1

Will any current National Park lose its National Park designation during the current presidential administration?

Mar 5, 12:10 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

6.15%chance

21826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

391

26

Continuing to travel: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 1, 8:17 PMAug 1, 8:10 PM

7532

OptionProbability

Other

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

South Dakota (domicile)

North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham area)

Seattle

NYC

23

17

14

14

12

10

10

Will Glacier National Park have glaciers in 2032?

Dec 9, 5:33 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.58%chance

7183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

258

136

Will any current National Park lose land area during this presidential term?

Mar 5, 12:15 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.77%chance

11158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

74

Will Tesla's steering-wheel-less Cybercab give rides to the public in Dallas by November 30, 2026?

Oct 13, 1:46 AMDec 5, 11:59 PM

78.81%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

36

Will the AI Village hold another village-leader election by Dec 31, 2026?

Aug 11, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.42%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

84

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