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Prediction markets for State Parks

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Will any current National Park lose its National Park designation during the current presidential administration?

Mar 5, 12:10 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

24%chance

18489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

4305

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

SF

NYC

25

15

13

13

13

11

11

Will Glacier National Park have glaciers in 2032?

Dec 9, 5:33 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.58%chance

7183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

258

136

Will there be any new national parks by the end of 2040?

Jul 8, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.71%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

37

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3105

OptionProbability

Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

Other

81

19

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 28th State Senate district

Jun 16, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

270

OptionProbability

Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (incumbent)

Other

74

26

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

250

OptionProbability

Juan Camacho

Sarah Rascón

Sara Hernandez

Other

Wendy Carrillo

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

34

20

16

11

9

9

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