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Prediction markets for State Parks

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10 (or equivalent)?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10938

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Cameron Kasky

Other

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

74

19

5

1

0

0

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will any current National Park lose its National Park designation during the current presidential administration?

Mar 5, 12:10 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

17375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

4305

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

SF

NYC

25

15

13

13

13

11

11

Will there be any new national parks by the end of 2040?

Jul 8, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.71%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

37

Will any current National Park lose land area during this presidential term?

Mar 5, 12:15 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.77%chance

11158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

74

Roadtrip: Gulf leg favorite state

Jan 10, 3:40 AMApr 2, 2:29 AM

475

OptionProbability

Louisiana (TBD)

Alabama (resolves NO if I don't have a non-Auburn stop)

Mississippi (TBD)

Arkansas (TBD)

33

24

22

21

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

265

OptionProbability

Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

Other

73

27

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 22nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

214

OptionProbability

Susan Rubio (incumbent)

Other

54

46

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