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Prediction markets for State Parks

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Will any current National Park lose its National Park designation during the current presidential administration?

Mar 5, 12:10 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

21726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Continuing to travel: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 1, 8:17 PMAug 1, 8:10 PM

7532

OptionProbability

Other

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

South Dakota (domicile)

North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham area)

Seattle

NYC

23

17

14

14

12

10

10

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2484

OptionProbability

Sara Hernandez

Sarah Rascón

Wendy Carrillo

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

Other

Juan Camacho

72

10

9

4

3

2

Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat?

Jun 15, 4:58 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

4230

OptionProbability

Eric Lucan

Jackie Elward

Other

61

37

2

Will Glacier National Park have glaciers in 2032?

Dec 9, 5:33 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.58%chance

7183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

258

136

Will there be any new national parks by the end of 2040?

Jul 8, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.71%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

37

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 28th State Senate district

Jun 16, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2170

OptionProbability

Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (incumbent)

Other

88

12

Will any current National Park lose land area during this presidential term?

Mar 5, 12:15 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.77%chance

11158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

74

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3155

OptionProbability

Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

Other

87

13

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 22nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3124

OptionProbability

Susan Rubio (incumbent)

Other

83

17

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