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Prediction markets for State Security Service

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40%chance

7233869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

16.32%chance

231443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

When will UK millennials get their state pension?

Aug 3, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

321110

OptionProbability

69 to 73 years old

There will be no state pension for millenials

Over 73 years old

68 years old

63 to 67 years old

Under 63 years old

56

18

14

10

2

0

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

When will we have a KRANTZ capable system? (defined below)

Dec 10, 7:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6229

OptionProbability

Within 12 months after Eliezer reviews my work.

2050

2100

2030

2040

2028

2029

2027

2026

2025

72

41

31

26

26

20

20

14

10

8

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.34%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2091

1916

Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

Jun 14, 7:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.09%chance

576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76

61

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