Status News

What will 23andMe’s status be on Dec 31, 2025?

Mar 29, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4440125

OptionProbability

Bankrupt or liquidated (Chapter 11/7, no longer operating independently)

Taken private (bought out by founders/insiders or private equity)

Acquired by another company

Still an independent public company

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

YES

3759

339

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

17089

5852

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.1%chance

233895

OptionVotes

YES

1247

934

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

23.73%chance

343206

OptionVotes

YES

1793

558

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.8%chance

112475

OptionVotes

YES

1464

683

Will the dollar lose its leading reserve currency status by 2040?

Apr 2, 1:28 PMAug 1, 9:59 PM

35.04%chance

23725

OptionVotes

YES

1051

853

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

May 9, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:18 PM

69.01%chance

7645

OptionVotes

YES

3517

2659

Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status

Feb 18, 7:31 PMMay 9, 6:59 AM

25.54%chance

16574

OptionVotes

YES

1300

868

Will Aella reference Impro in her latest Substack article series on status?

Jul 3, 4:41 AMDec 31, 5:40 AM

52.18%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

1045

957

Will Manifold topic pages support URL query parameters for status, sort order, etc before 2026?

Dec 29, 7:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Status News

Prediction markets for Status

Prediction markets for Status

Prediction markets for Status

What will 23andMe’s status be on Dec 31, 2025?

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

Will the dollar lose its leading reserve currency status by 2040?

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status

Will Aella reference Impro in her latest Substack article series on status?

Will Manifold topic pages support URL query parameters for status, sort order, etc before 2026?

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