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Top stories

Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples

Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples

Authors

5

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Stills

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.51%chance

355128360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

1886

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2614

1027

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

1157

On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Sep 23, 8:43 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

2531480

OptionProbability

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027

2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028

2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029

2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

98

59

39

26

14

12

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

97.23%chance

7017863

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16538

904

Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]

Jan 5, 9:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.09%chance

5917506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3323

1209

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

Feb 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.15%chance

7112083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6103

321

If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?

Jul 2, 2:51 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

282721

OptionProbability

AI winter

Benign superintelligence

Other

Effective international moratorium

33

28

23

17

Will Donald Trump still be president in 2030?

Dec 31, 1:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.83%chance

212689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

950

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.29%chance

271455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

406

Will the Senate still have the ability to filibuster in the year 2032?

Apr 12, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.48%chance

401367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2064

1858

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.13%chance

25902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2254

1726

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