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Prediction markets for Stock Options

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will any large company leave California because of SB-1047? (2025)

Jun 12, 4:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

186794

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Move model training or inference elsewhere

Completely leave

Move employees elsewhere

98

1

0

0

Jason Ween Love Stocks: Multi-Stonk Drifting

Apr 10, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

806436

OptionProbability

Sa Stock

Selena Stock

Alyssa Stock

Other

80

12

7

2

How many stars are formed per average year in the Milky Way?

Nov 2, 8:33 AMJun 15, 10:59 PM

144398

OptionProbability

6 to 7

0 to 1

5 to 6

8 to 9

100 to 1,000

1 to 2

4 to 5

9 to 10

10 to 100

2 to 3

3 to 4

17

15

15

15

15

6

4

4

4

2

2

Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)

Jun 12, 5:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

173619

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Move model training or inference elsewhere

Completely leave

Move employees elsewhere

82

7

5

5

Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)

Jun 12, 5:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

163356

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Move model training or inference elsewhere

Move employees elsewhere

Completely leave

90

4

3

2

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

What stake will OpenAI's non-profit have in its for-profit arm, if restructured?

Jan 3, 5:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32355

OptionProbability

Fraction of voting shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of profit allocated to non-profit

29

25

14

Will Waymo IPO before the end of...? [unlinked]

Jan 22, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6576

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2029

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

EOY 2025

EOY 2024

85

77

76

57

26

3

0

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

63.02%chance

5540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2308

1435

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

GOOGL stock price higher than GOOG by 1/1/2026?

May 13, 3:00 PMJan 3, 12:59 AM

44.36%chance

214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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