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Prediction markets for Stock Options

Jason Ween Love Stocks: Multi-Stonk Drifting

Apr 10, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

806436

OptionProbability

Sa Stock

Selena Stock

Alyssa Stock

Other

80

12

7

2

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

326314

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

72

6

6

6

5

5

1

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

294576

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

33

23

13

9

7

3

1

How many stars are formed per average year in the Milky Way?

Nov 2, 8:33 AMJun 15, 10:59 PM

144402

OptionProbability

6 to 7

0 to 1

5 to 6

8 to 9

100 to 1,000

1 to 2

9 to 10

4 to 5

10 to 100

2 to 3

3 to 4

17

15

15

15

15

6

5

4

4

2

2

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

Will GME reach $30 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.55%chance

42002

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

646

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

Will GME reach $40 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.82%chance

71352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will Waymo IPO before the end of...? [unlinked]

Jan 22, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6644

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2029

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

EOY 2024

EOY 2025

80

73

67

53

21

0

0

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

Will Manifold's next backend engineer's compensation be tied to counterfactual server costs?

Nov 9, 5:27 AMJul 1, 5:59 AM

16.91%chance

8170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

124

What companies will increase in value if China invades Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 21, 7:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3152

OptionProbability

Intel (INTC)

Samsung (SSNLF)

TSMC

43

42

24

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