Story News

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?

Apr 4, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.75%chance

152522

OptionVotes

YES

1649

900

When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?

Nov 22, 7:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

132249

OptionProbability

2026

2025

Other

2027

2023

2024

Will Joscha Bach OR janus/repligate OR nearcyan OR NickCammarata be mentioned in FanFiction.Net story by EOY2026?

Jan 13, 6:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

2898

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

1664

878

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.91%chance

4621

OptionVotes

YES

1401

947

Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?

Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

17377

OptionVotes

YES

1043

943

Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?

Jan 12, 12:57 AMOct 2, 11:59 PM

43.02%chance

11326

OptionVotes

YES

115

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM

2284

OptionProbability

“Wire Mother” - Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Issue 229)

“10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days” - Samantha Mills (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 63)

“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything” - Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots, May 16, 2025)

“Six People to Revise You” - J.R. Dawson (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)

“In My Country” - Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, Issue 223)

“Missing Helen” - Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Issue 226)

Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?

Apr 25, 2:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.95%chance

9226

OptionVotes

YES

288

137

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

May 4, 8:39 PMOct 8, 8:24 PM

3175

OptionProbability

Official statement from Kuang or her publisher defending the passage.

None of the above.

Official apology from Kuang or her publisher.

Final published paper version does not include the passage.

Published electronic versions do not include the passage as of 1 month after release.

🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030

Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.16%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

1037

964

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What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?

When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?

Will Joscha Bach OR janus/repligate OR nearcyan OR NickCammarata be mentioned in FanFiction.Net story by EOY2026?

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?

Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030

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