OptionVotes
YES
NO
20520
10809
13499
7975
1031
884
489
269
OptionProbability
[Wikipedia declares Israeli victory in Gaza war] and [Wikipedia declares Ukrainian victory against Russia]
By end of 2026: [Iran closes Strait of Hormuz] and [Iran acquires nuclear weapon]
In 2025: [Pope Leo XIV named Time’s Person of the Year] and [Pope Leo XIV openly criticises Trump]
In 2025: [Trump is on Time’s Person of the Year shortlist] and [Trump cuts >250,000 government employees]
9
7
0
122
82
Q4, 2028
Q1, 2029
Q3, 2027
Q4, 2027
Q1, 2028
Q2, 2028
Q3, 2028
Q2, 2029
Q3, 2029
Q4, 2029
Q1, 2027
Q2, 2027
Other
10
8
6
