OptionVotes
YES
NO
153
65
OptionProbability
By end of 2026: [Iran closes Strait of Hormuz] and [Iran acquires nuclear weapon]
[Wikipedia declares Israeli victory in Gaza war] and [Wikipedia declares Ukrainian victory against Russia]
In 2025: [Pope Leo XIV named Time’s Person of the Year] and [Pope Leo XIV openly criticises Trump]
In 2025: [Trump is on Time’s Person of the Year shortlist] and [Trump cuts >250,000 government employees]
9
0
100
144
71
124
81
122
82
Q4, 2028
Q1, 2029
Q3, 2027
Q4, 2027
Q1, 2028
Q2, 2028
Q3, 2028
Q2, 2029
Q3, 2029
Q4, 2029
Q1, 2027
Q2, 2027
Other
10
8
6
