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Prediction markets for Strategic Forces

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Jun 20, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.8%chance

436480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2610

383

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.89%chance

253665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

810

Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?

Mar 31, 1:23 AMJan 21, 2:23 AM

31.66%chance

14639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.78%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

72

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Will a Chinese armed forces pilot defect to Taiwan with their aircraft before 2030?

Dec 12, 2:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.08%chance

780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

163

Has PLA General Wang Houbin (王厚斌) been arrested?

Mar 28, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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