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Prediction markets for Strategic Initiatives

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8715

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Alaska

Other

Finland

Lithuania

Latvia

51

26

7

7

4

2

2

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

Will "Good Research Takes are Not Sufficient for Go..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 4, 3:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.91%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

974

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

Will "AI Governance to Avoid Extinction: The Strate..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 11:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will the Trump administration's floor price for samarium 3N exceed $60 / kg in Project Vault when announced?

Feb 6, 4:38 PMFeb 13, 4:38 PM

67.5%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

277

148

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.63%chance

6157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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